Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mavrik BourqueGoals3
- Matt DucheneAssists3
- Mavrik BourquePoints4
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals1
- William NylanderAssists2
- William NylanderPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:52Mavrik Bourque Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (29), Alexander Petrovic (8)6–5
- P39:38Arttu Hyry Goal (3) , assists: none5–5
- P38:18Wyatt Johnston Goal (45) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (55), Thomas Harley (30)4–5
- P34:19Nicholas Robertson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Stecher (11), Matthew Knies (43)3–5
- P31:40Max Domi Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (49), Matthew Knies (42)3–4
- P29:29Jason Robertson Goal (45) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (28), Mavrik Bourque (21)3–3
- P25:31Mavrik Bourque Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (51), Matt Duchene (27)2–3
- P20:52Mavrik Bourque Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: none1–3
- P115:51William Nylander Goal (29) Batted, assists: Jake McCabe (20), Simon Benoit (6)0–3
- P114:35Jacob Quillan Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Steven Lorentz (11)0–2
- P12:14John Tavares Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (48)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:29Jason Robertson Goal (45) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (28), Mavrik Bourque (21)DAL 3 – 3 TOR · DAL 39% → 59% +20DAL 39% → 59%+20 pts
- P31:40Max Domi Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (49), Matthew Knies (42)DAL 3 – 4 TOR · TOR 43% → 68% +26TOR 43% → 68%+26 pts
- P34:19Nicholas Robertson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Stecher (11), Matthew Knies (43)DAL 3 – 5 TOR · TOR 71% → 90% +19TOR 71% → 90%+19 pts
- P39:38Arttu Hyry Goal (3) , assists: noneDAL 5 – 5 TOR · DAL 23% → 56% +33DAL 23% → 56%+33 pts
- P314:52Mavrik Bourque Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (29), Alexander Petrovic (8)DAL 6 – 5 TOR · DAL 54% → 91% +37DAL 54% → 91%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 63%
- ML DAL -192 / TOR +160
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 59.4%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -171
- TOR +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.6 – 2.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −8 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · TOR: Artur Akhtyamov: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +66 Elo | DAL 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.0% | Shot share | 44.9%32nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%16th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 7th of 3222–17 | Road vs home | 18–2228th of 32 |
| 27th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 15042nd of 32 |
| 4th of 321556 | Elo rating | 146626th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–48 | 33–47 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–45 | 7–26 |
| Underdog | 14–3 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders | 39–41 | 46–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–3 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.