Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Viktor ArvidssonGoals2
- Casey MittelstadtAssists2
- Viktor ArvidssonPoints2
Sabres- Peyton KrebsGoals1
- Alex TuchAssists1
- Bowen ByramPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:08Peyton Krebs Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (1), Alex Tuch (2)4–2
- P313:54Bowen Byram Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (1), Owen Power (2)4–1
- P30:16Viktor Arvidsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (2), Jonathan Aspirot (2)4–0
- P218:10Pavel Zacha Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (4), Charlie McAvoy (1)3–0
- P216:29Morgan Geekie Goal (2) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (3), Sean Kuraly (1)2–0
- P24:54Viktor Arvidsson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Aspirot (1), Casey Mittelstadt (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:54Viktor Arvidsson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Aspirot (1), Casey Mittelstadt (1)BOS 1 – 0 BUF · BOS 42% → 61% +19BOS 42% → 61%+19 pts
- P216:29Morgan Geekie Goal (2) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (3), Sean Kuraly (1)BOS 2 – 0 BUF · BOS 66% → 84% +18BOS 66% → 84%+18 pts
- P218:10Pavel Zacha Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (4), Charlie McAvoy (1)BOS 3 – 0 BUF · BOS 85% → 95% +10BOS 85% → 95%+10 pts
- P30:16Viktor Arvidsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (2), Jonathan Aspirot (2)BOS 4 – 0 BUF · BOS 96% → >99% +3BOS 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P315:08Peyton Krebs Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (1), Alex Tuch (2)BOS 4 – 2 BUF · BUF <1% → <1% +1BUF <1% → <1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 60%
- ML BOS +140 / BUF -166
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- BUF: Elo 61.2%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- BUF -150
- BOS +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.5 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +3 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +79 Elo | BUF 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.7%3rd of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 26th of 3216–24 | Road vs home | 26–153rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 32 |
| 14th of 321510 | Elo rating | 15575th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 55–28 | 48–35 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 19–24 |
| Underdog | 43–13 | 29–11 |
| Overs–unders | 44–39 | 41–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–6 BUF in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.