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Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast

FinalBUF wins series 4-2

Away

Sabres

50-23-9

4–1

at

Home

Bruins

45-27-10

BUF 54%BOS 46%

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TD Garden · ESPN, MSGB, NESN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.

BOS favored BUF favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3BOS50%BUF

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Sabres

Scoring summary

  • P316:40Josh Norris Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (3), Zach Benson (1)4–1
  • P35:58Zach Benson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (2)3–1
  • P21:54David Pastrnak Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (2), Hampus Lindholm (2)2–1
  • P112:26Mattias Samuelsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (4), Tage Thompson (5)2–0
  • P13:25Alex Tuch Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (2), Tage Thompson (4)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P13:25Alex Tuch Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (2), Tage Thompson (4)BUF 1 – 0 BOS · BUF 54% → 68% +14
  2. P112:26Mattias Samuelsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (4), Tage Thompson (5)BUF 2 – 0 BOS · BUF 69% → 82% +13
  3. P21:54David Pastrnak Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (2), Hampus Lindholm (2)BUF 2 – 1 BOS · BOS 16% → 29% +14
  4. P35:58Zach Benson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (2)BUF 3 – 1 BOS · BUF 79% → 94% +15
  5. P316:40Josh Norris Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (3), Zach Benson (1)BUF 4 – 1 BOS · BUF >99% → >99% +0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Sabres 54%

Toss-upHit
BUF 54%BOS 46%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
BUF 54%
ML BUF -130 / BOS +110
Pre-line forecast
BUF 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BUF 52%
Ratings vs. market
−2.3 pts
BUF: Elo 52.0%, market 54.3%
Fair odds
BUF -119
BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BUF 2.9 – 2.6 BOS
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBUFBOSWhy
Team rating15581509Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+3+4BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsBUF +14 EloBUF 52.0%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 50.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBUF 50.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastBUF 54.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Buffalo Sabres and Boston Bruins compared, with each team's league rank
BUFStatBOS
5th of 323.5Goals scored3.311th of 32
7th of 322.9Goals allowed3.013th of 32
5th of 32+0.6Margin+0.311th of 32
19th of 3249.2%Shot share47.6%26th of 32
3rd of 3290.7%Save percentage90.3%7th of 32
8th of 326–4Last 105–516th of 32
2nd of 3224–17Road vs home29–121st of 32
14th of 321501Opponent Elo15043rd of 32
4th of 321558Elo rating150914th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

SabresBruins
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBUFBOS
Puck line50–3757–30
Last 107–38–2
Favorite19–2612–17
Underdog31–1145–13
Overs–unders42–4545–42
Overs–unders, last 104–63–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BUF 8–8 BOS in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.