New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Tye KartyeGoals2
- J.T. MillerAssists2
- Tye KartyePoints3
Lightning- Corey PerryGoals1
- Zemgus GirgensonsAssists1
- Corey PerryPoints1
Scoring summary
- P30:51Corey Perry Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Zemgus Girgensons (11), Emil Lilleberg (8)4–2
- P212:46Mika Zibanejad Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (33), J.T. Miller (36)4–1
- P211:15Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Scott Sabourin (4), Mitchell Chaffee (1)3–1
- P24:49Gabe Perreault Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (18), Tye Kartye (14)3–0
- P21:29Tye Kartye Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (35), Conor Sheary (11)2–0
- P14:02Tye Kartye Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (44), Vladislav Gavrikov (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:02Tye Kartye Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (44), Vladislav Gavrikov (21)NYR 1 – 0 TB · NYR 44% → 59% +15NYR 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P21:29Tye Kartye Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (35), Conor Sheary (11)NYR 2 – 0 TB · NYR 63% → 78% +15NYR 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P24:49Gabe Perreault Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (18), Tye Kartye (14)NYR 3 – 0 TB · NYR 80% → 90% +11NYR 80% → 90%+11 pts
- P211:15Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Scott Sabourin (4), Mitchell Chaffee (1)NYR 3 – 1 TB · TB 7% → 17% +10TB 7% → 17%+10 pts
- P212:46Mika Zibanejad Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (33), J.T. Miller (36)NYR 4 – 1 TB · NYR 84% → 94% +10NYR 84% → 94%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 56%
- ML NYR +120 / TB -142
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- TB: Elo 62.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -129
- NYR +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.1 – 3.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −31 | NYR: Dylan Garand: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TB: Brandon Halverson: team allows 0.77 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +90 Elo | TB 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 65.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.82nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.7% | Shot share | 51.2%9th of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.2%7th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 19th of 3218–21 | Road vs home | 25–144th of 32 |
| 6th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 32 |
| 25th of 321474 | Elo rating | 15703rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–40 | 38–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–23 | 27–42 |
| Underdog | 32–17 | 11–1 |
| Overs–unders | 37–44 | 42–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 4–4 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.