Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- David PerronGoals1
- James van RiemsdykAssists1
- David PerronPoints1
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:27Nikita Kucherov Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (32)3–4
- P315:16Alex DeBrincat Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (41)3–3
- P32:56Marco Kasper Goal (9) Backhand, assists: James van Riemsdyk (16), Justin Faulk (24)2–3
- P218:03Jake Guentzel Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (86), J.J. Moser (22)1–3
- P215:53Erik Cernak Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (15), Zemgus Girgensons (10)1–2
- P117:05Conor Geekie Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (20)1–1
- P15:31David Perron Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (17), Ben Chiarot (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:31David Perron Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (17), Ben Chiarot (9)DET 1 – 0 TB · DET 37% → 52% +15DET 37% → 52%+15 pts
- P117:05Conor Geekie Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (20)DET 1 – 1 TB · TB 45% → 62% +17TB 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P215:53Erik Cernak Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (15), Zemgus Girgensons (10)DET 1 – 2 TB · TB 59% → 79% +20TB 59% → 79%+20 pts
- P315:16Alex DeBrincat Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (41)DET 3 – 3 TB · DET 8% → 46% +38DET 8% → 46%+38 pts
- OT0:27Nikita Kucherov Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (32)DET 3 – 4 TB · TB 54% → 92% +38TB 54% → 92%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 64%
- ML DET +164 / TB -198
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- TB: Elo 68.2%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -175
- DET +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +7 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +132 Elo | TB 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 66.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.82nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 51.3%9th of 32 |
| 14th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.2%8th of 32 |
| 24th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 11th of 3220–19 | Road vs home | 24–145th of 32 |
| 6th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 32 |
| 20th of 321490 | Elo rating | 15693rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–40 | 38–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–29 | 27–41 |
| Underdog | 31–11 | 11–1 |
| Overs–unders | 40–40 | 41–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–4 TB in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.