Detroit Red Wings at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Justin FaulkGoals1
- Ben ChiarotAssists1
- Justin FaulkPoints1
Panthers- Luke KuninGoals2
- Wilmer SkoogAssists2
- Luke KuninPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:12Luke Kunin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Reinhardt (6)1–8
- P39:37Cole Reinhardt Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (6), Matthew Tkachuk (21)1–7
- P38:56Cole Schwindt Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Marek Alscher (3), Mikulas Hovorka (1)1–6
- P216:12Justin Faulk Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (44), Ben Chiarot (10)1–5
- P212:41Mike Benning Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Donovan Sebrango (8), Mackie Samoskevich (20)0–5
- P29:39Mike Benning Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Wilmer Skoog (2), Eetu Luostarinen (22)0–4
- P28:56A.J. Greer Goal (17) Wrap-around, assists: Noah Gregor (5), Ludvig Jansson (1)0–3
- P25:37Luke Kunin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (20), Marek Alscher (2)0–2
- P14:57Vinnie Hinostroza Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Wilmer Skoog (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:57Vinnie Hinostroza Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Wilmer Skoog (1)DET 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 40% → 55% +15FLA 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P25:37Luke Kunin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (20), Marek Alscher (2)DET 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 61% → 77% +17FLA 61% → 77%+17 pts
- P28:56A.J. Greer Goal (17) Wrap-around, assists: Noah Gregor (5), Ludvig Jansson (1)DET 0 – 3 FLA · FLA 79% → 91% +11FLA 79% → 91%+11 pts
- P29:39Mike Benning Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Wilmer Skoog (2), Eetu Luostarinen (22)DET 0 – 4 FLA · FLA 91% → 97% +6FLA 91% → 97%+6 pts
- P212:41Mike Benning Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Donovan Sebrango (8), Mackie Samoskevich (20)DET 0 – 5 FLA · FLA 98% → >99% +2FLA 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DET 61%
- ML DET -175 / FLA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.3 pts
- DET: Elo 43.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -156
- FLA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.6 – 2.9 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −7 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +44 Elo | FLA 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 51.1%10th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 88.4%28th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3220–20 | Road vs home | 22–1710th of 32 |
| 4th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 32 |
| 20th of 321489 | Elo rating | 150515th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–40 | 29–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–29 | 9–40 |
| Underdog | 32–11 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 41–40 | 46–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–6 FLA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.