Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Brayden PointAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists2
- Mika ZibanejadPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:26Igor Shesterkin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–5
- P216:01Gabe Perreault Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (2), Mika Zibanejad (1)1–4
- P27:59Nikita Kucherov Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (1), Brayden Point (1)1–3
- P21:40Eeli Tolvanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Laba (1)0–3
- P110:51Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (1)0–2
- P15:34Mika Zibanejad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (1), Adam Fox (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:34Mika Zibanejad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (1), Adam Fox (1)TB 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 43% → 58% +15NYR 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P110:51Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (1)TB 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 59% → 74% +15NYR 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P21:40Eeli Tolvanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Laba (1)TB 0 – 3 NYR · NYR 78% → 89% +11NYR 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P27:59Nikita Kucherov Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (1), Brayden Point (1)TB 1 – 3 NYR · TB 9% → 19% +11TB 9% → 19%+11 pts
- P216:01Gabe Perreault Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (2), Mika Zibanejad (1)TB 1 – 4 NYR · NYR 85% → 95% +10NYR 85% → 95%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML TB -148 / NYR +124
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- TB: Elo 54.5%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -134
- NYR +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 2.5 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +5 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +31 Elo | TB 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 46.6%27th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.4%4th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 14–2730th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15042nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321546 | Elo rating | 148122nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  TB |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–51 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 0–10 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–50 | 9–23 |
| Underdog | 11–1 | 33–17 |
| Overs–unders | 43–46 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–5 NYR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.