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Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast

Final/OTSeries tied 3-3

Away

Lightning

50-26-6

1–0

at

Home

Canadiens

48-24-10

TB 52%MTL 48%

You didn't pick this one.

Bell Centre · ESPN2, The Spot - MTN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors MTL.

MTL75%50%75%TBStartP1P2P3Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Lightning
Canadiens

    Scoring summary

    • OT9:03Gage Goncalves Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dominic James (1), Brandon Hagel (2)1–0

    Turning points

    The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. OT9:03Gage Goncalves Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dominic James (1), Brandon Hagel (2)TB 1 – 0 MTL · TB 51% → 100% +49

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Lightning 52%

    Toss-upHit
    TB 52%MTL 48%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

    Market
    TB 52%
    ML TB -120 / MTL +100
    Pre-line forecast
    TB 50%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    TB 49%
    Ratings vs. market
    −3.2 pts
    TB: Elo 49.0%, market 52.2%
    Fair odds
    TB -109
    MTL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    TB 2.8 – 2.7 MTL
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorTBMTLWhy
    Team rating15611536Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+5+2TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsMTL +7 EloMTL 51.0%
    Market-implied ratingsMTL 50.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastMTL 50.5%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastTB 52.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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    Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens compared, with each team's league rank
    TBStatMTL
    4th of 323.5Goals scored3.56th of 32
    3rd of 322.8Goals allowed3.118th of 32
    2nd of 32+0.7Margin+0.39th of 32
    9th of 3251.3%Shot share48.6%22nd of 32
    11th of 3290.2%Save percentage89.5%18th of 32
    16th of 325–5Last 107–32nd of 32
    2nd of 3224–17Road vs home24–178th of 32
    13th of 321502Opponent Elo150311th of 32
    3rd of 321561Elo rating15367th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    LightningCanadiens
    14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonTBMTL
    Puck line38–4949–38
    Last 100–107–3
    Favorite27–4810–34
    Underdog11–139–4
    Overs–unders43–4447–40
    Overs–unders, last 103–73–7

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    TB 9–7 MTL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.