Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Brandon HagelPoints2
Canadiens- Zack BolducGoals1
- Alexandre TexierAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:07Brandon Hagel Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Nikita Kucherov (5), J.J. Moser (2)3–2
- P31:40Brandon Hagel Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (4), Jake Guentzel (6)2–2
- P219:06Jake Guentzel Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: J.J. Moser (1), Darren Raddysh (1)1–2
- P213:29Cole Caufield Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (4), Lane Hutson (2)0–2
- P210:06Zachary Bolduc Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Kaiden Guhle (1), Alexandre Texier (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:06Zachary Bolduc Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Kaiden Guhle (1), Alexandre Texier (2)TB 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 49% → 69% +20MTL 49% → 69%+20 pts
- P213:29Cole Caufield Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (4), Lane Hutson (2)TB 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 70% → 86% +16MTL 70% → 86%+16 pts
- P219:06Jake Guentzel Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: J.J. Moser (1), Darren Raddysh (1)TB 1 – 2 MTL · TB 11% → 28% +16TB 11% → 28%+16 pts
- P31:40Brandon Hagel Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (4), Jake Guentzel (6)TB 2 – 2 MTL · TB 26% → 51% +25TB 26% → 51%+25 pts
- P315:07Brandon Hagel Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Nikita Kucherov (5), J.J. Moser (2)TB 3 – 2 MTL · TB 50% → 90% +40TB 50% → 90%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML TB -118 / MTL -102
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- TB: Elo 49.4%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -107
- MTL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.8 – 2.7 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +2 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +4 Elo | MTL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.39th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.5%18th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 24–178th of 32 |
| 12th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321562 | Elo rating | 15356th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–47 | 47–38 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–46 | 10–34 |
| Underdog | 11–1 | 37–4 |
| Overs–unders | 43–42 | 47–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 8–6 MTL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.