Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Juraj SlafkovskyGoals3
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints3
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals2
- Jake GuentzelAssists3
- Jake GuentzelPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:22Juraj Slafkovský Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (1), Nick Suzuki (2)4–3
- P38:58Brandon Hagel Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jake Guentzel (3), Nikita Kucherov (2)3–3
- P35:56Juraj Slafkovský Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (2), Nick Suzuki (1)3–2
- P219:36Juraj Slafkovský Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (1), Cole Caufield (1)2–2
- P212:44Brandon Hagel Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jake Guentzel (2), Ryan McDonagh (1)1–2
- P212:15Darren Raddysh Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (1), Jake Guentzel (1)1–1
- P113:24Josh Anderson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (1), Mike Matheson (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:15Darren Raddysh Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (1), Jake Guentzel (1)MTL 1 – 1 TB · TB 37% → 58% +21TB 37% → 58%+21 pts
- P219:36Juraj Slafkovský Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (1), Cole Caufield (1)MTL 2 – 2 TB · MTL 21% → 43% +22MTL 21% → 43%+22 pts
- P35:56Juraj Slafkovský Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (2), Nick Suzuki (1)MTL 3 – 2 TB · MTL 44% → 73% +29MTL 44% → 73%+29 pts
- P38:58Brandon Hagel Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jake Guentzel (3), Nikita Kucherov (2)MTL 3 – 3 TB · TB 23% → 55% +32TB 23% → 55%+32 pts
- OT1:22Juraj Slafkovský Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (1), Nick Suzuki (2)MTL 4 – 3 TB · MTL 47% → 92% +45MTL 47% → 92%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 62%
- ML MTL +150 / TB -180
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- TB: Elo 60.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -161
- MTL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +9 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +77 Elo | TB 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.72nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 51.3%9th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.2%11th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 25–156th of 32 |
| 10th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 8th of 321532 | Elo rating | 15653rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–38 | 38–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 10–34 | 27–43 |
| Underdog | 34–4 | 11–1 |
| Overs–unders | 46–36 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 4–7 TB in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.