Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals1
- Phillip DanaultAssists1
- Josh AndersonPoints1
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals1
- Anthony CirelliAssists2
- Brandon HagelPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT12:48J.J. Moser Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (2)2–3
- P312:33Nikita Kucherov Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Anthony Cirelli (1), Brandon Hagel (1)2–2
- P218:36Josh Anderson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (1), Jake Evans (1)2–1
- P116:11Lane Hutson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (3), Cole Caufield (3)1–1
- P18:40Brandon Hagel Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (4), Erik Cernak (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:40Brandon Hagel Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (4), Erik Cernak (1)MTL 0 – 1 TB · TB 61% → 75% +14TB 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P116:11Lane Hutson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (3), Cole Caufield (3)MTL 1 – 1 TB · MTL 24% → 39% +15MTL 24% → 39%+15 pts
- P218:36Josh Anderson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (1), Jake Evans (1)MTL 2 – 1 TB · MTL 43% → 66% +24MTL 43% → 66%+24 pts
- P312:33Nikita Kucherov Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Anthony Cirelli (1), Brandon Hagel (1)MTL 2 – 2 TB · TB 18% → 54% +37TB 18% → 54%+37 pts
- OT12:48J.J. Moser Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (2)MTL 2 – 3 TB · TB 54% → 100% +46TB 54% → 100%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 62%
- ML MTL +154 / TB -185
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- TB: Elo 59.8%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -165
- MTL +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.4 – 3.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +7 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +69 Elo | TB 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.72nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 51.3%9th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.2%11th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 25–156th of 32 |
| 11th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 32 |
| 6th of 321535 | Elo rating | 15623rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 45–38 | 38–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 10–34 | 27–44 |
| Underdog | 35–4 | 11–1 |
| Overs–unders | 47–36 | 43–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 5–7 TB in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.