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Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast

FinalMTL leads series 3-2

Away

Canadiens

48-24-10

3–2

at

Home

Lightning

50-26-6

MTL 42%TB 58%

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Benchmark International Arena · ESPN2, The Spot - MTN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.

TB favored MTL favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3TB50%MTL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canadiens
Lightning

Scoring summary

  • P31:06Alexandre Texier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (3), Nick Suzuki (5)3–2
  • P217:23Jake Guentzel Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
  • P27:00Kirby Dach Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (3), Kaiden Guhle (2)2–1
  • P26:49Dominic James Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (1), Yanni Gourde (1)1–1
  • P13:00Brendan Gallagher Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (1)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P13:00Brendan Gallagher Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (1)MTL 1 – 0 TB · MTL 42% → 57% +15
  2. P26:49Dominic James Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (1), Yanni Gourde (1)MTL 1 – 1 TB · TB 37% → 56% +19
  3. P27:00Kirby Dach Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (3), Kaiden Guhle (2)MTL 2 – 1 TB · MTL 44% → 63% +19
  4. P217:23Jake Guentzel Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneMTL 2 – 2 TB · TB 32% → 55% +23
  5. P31:06Alexandre Texier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (3), Nick Suzuki (5)MTL 3 – 2 TB · MTL 45% → 70% +25

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Lightning 58%

LeanMiss
MTL 42%TB 58%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
TB 58%
ML MTL +130 / TB -155
Pre-line forecast
TB 61%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TB 60%
Ratings vs. market
+1.7 pts
TB: Elo 60.0%, market 58.3%
Fair odds
TB -140
MTL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MTL 2.5 – 3.0 TB
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMTLTBWhy
Team rating15331564Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+2+6MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTB +71 EloTB 60.0%
Market-implied ratingsTB 61.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTB 61.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTB 58.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning compared, with each team's league rank
MTLStatTB
6th of 323.5Goals scored3.54th of 32
18th of 323.1Goals allowed2.83rd of 32
9th of 32+0.3Margin+0.72nd of 32
22nd of 3248.6%Shot share51.3%9th of 32
18th of 3289.5%Save percentage90.2%11th of 32
2nd of 327–3Last 105–516th of 32
2nd of 3224–17Road vs home25–156th of 32
11th of 321503Opponent Elo150114th of 32
7th of 321533Elo rating15643rd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CanadiensLightning
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMTLTB
Puck line48–3838–48
Last 106–40–10
Favorite10–3427–47
Underdog38–411–1
Overs–unders47–3943–43
Overs–unders, last 103–73–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MTL 6–9 TB in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.