Boston Bruins at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Hampus LindholmGoals1
- Nikita ZadorovAssists2
- Nikita ZadorovPoints2
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals1
- Adam LowryAssists2
- Kyle ConnorPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:21JJ Peterka Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (2), Nikita Zadorov (2)4–3
- P318:22Elias Lindholm Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (1), Mason Lohrei (2)3–3
- P219:52Mario Ferraro Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (2), Kyle Connor (1)2–3
- P21:50Kyle Connor Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (1), Cole Perfetti (1)2–2
- P115:20James Hagens Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (1), Mark Kastelic (1)2–1
- P19:23Hampus Lindholm Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (1), William Borgen (1)1–1
- P14:52Dylan DeMelo Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (1), Adam Lowry (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:20James Hagens Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (1), Mark Kastelic (1)BOS 2 – 1 WPG · BOS 48% → 64% +17BOS 48% → 64%+17 pts
- P21:50Kyle Connor Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (1), Cole Perfetti (1)BOS 2 – 2 WPG · WPG 34% → 52% +18WPG 34% → 52%+18 pts
- P219:52Mario Ferraro Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (2), Kyle Connor (1)BOS 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 52% → 75% +23WPG 52% → 75%+23 pts
- P318:22Elias Lindholm Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (1), Mason Lohrei (2)BOS 3 – 3 WPG · BOS 1% → 50% +48BOS 1% → 50%+48 pts
- OT3:21JJ Peterka Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (2), Nikita Zadorov (2)BOS 4 – 3 WPG · BOS 50% → 99% +49BOS 50% → 99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 53%
- ML BOS +102 / WPG -122
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 50.0%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- WPG -111
- BOS +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.7 – 2.8 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −14 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · WPG: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS 0 Elo | BOS 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 48.7%21st of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.3%20th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 26th of 3216–24 | Road vs home | 19–2226th of 32 |
| 6th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 15th of 321507 | Elo rating | 149119th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  BOS |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 57–31 | 37–45 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–17 | 12–34 |
| Underdog | 45–14 | 25–11 |
| Overs–unders | 45–43 | 44–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–3 WPG in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.