Winnipeg Jets at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Gabriel VilardiAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Mammoth- Nick SchmaltzGoals2
- Logan CooleyAssists1
- Nick SchmaltzPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:36Alexander Kerfoot Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–5
- P314:23Isak Rosen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none3–4
- P312:36Mark Scheifele Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (53), Gabriel Vilardi (39)2–4
- P37:42JJ Peterka Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P37:16Nick Schmaltz Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (19), Clayton Keller (60)1–3
- P217:09Kyle Connor Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (38), Mark Scheifele (67)1–2
- P24:54Nick Schmaltz Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (49), Dylan Guenther (33)0–2
- P18:05Logan Cooley Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Nate Schmidt (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:05Logan Cooley Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Nate Schmidt (17)WPG 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 65% → 78% +13UTA 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P24:54Nick Schmaltz Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (49), Dylan Guenther (33)WPG 0 – 2 UTA · UTA 78% → 90% +11UTA 78% → 90%+11 pts
- P217:09Kyle Connor Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (38), Mark Scheifele (67)WPG 1 – 2 UTA · WPG 8% → 20% +12WPG 8% → 20%+12 pts
- P37:16Nick Schmaltz Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (19), Clayton Keller (60)WPG 1 – 3 UTA · UTA 84% → 96% +13UTA 84% → 96%+13 pts
- P314:23Isak Rosen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: noneWPG 3 – 4 UTA · WPG <1% → 9% +9WPG <1% → 9%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 66%
- ML WPG +180 / UTA -218
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- UTA: Elo 62.9%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- UTA -192
- WPG +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.8 – 3.7 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +4 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +92 Elo | UTA 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 66.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.94th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.48th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.9% | Shot share | 51.4%8th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.4%21st of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 25th of 3216–24 | Road vs home | 21–1814th of 32 |
| 21st of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 32 |
| 18th of 321499 | Elo rating | 151611th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–43 | 36–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–33 | 19–35 |
| Underdog | 25–10 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 42–38 | 41–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 2–4 UTA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.
