Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals1
- Jack EichelAssists3
- Jack EichelPoints4
Scoring summary
- P37:38Jack Eichel Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: none2–6
- P35:42Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (45), Jack Eichel (61)2–5
- P34:41Mark Scheifele Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (52), Gabriel Vilardi (37)2–4
- P33:37Rasmus Andersson Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (44), Ivan Barbashev (38)1–4
- P32:34Gabriel Vilardi Goal (30) Tip-In, assists: Colin Miller (2), Mark Scheifele (66)1–3
- P30:31Ivan Barbashev Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (60), Noah Hanifin (25)0–3
- P218:54Reilly Smith Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (24), Rasmus Andersson (29)0–2
- P27:38Mark Stone Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (59)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:38Mark Stone Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (59)WPG 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 59% → 77% +18VGK 59% → 77%+18 pts
- P218:54Reilly Smith Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (24), Rasmus Andersson (29)WPG 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 79% → 92% +13VGK 79% → 92%+13 pts
- P30:31Ivan Barbashev Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (60), Noah Hanifin (25)WPG 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 93% → 98% +5VGK 93% → 98%+5 pts
- P32:34Gabriel Vilardi Goal (30) Tip-In, assists: Colin Miller (2), Mark Scheifele (66)WPG 1 – 3 VGK · WPG 1% → 6% +5WPG 1% → 6%+5 pts
- P33:37Rasmus Andersson Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (44), Ivan Barbashev (38)WPG 1 – 4 VGK · VGK 94% → 99% +5VGK 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 62%
- ML WPG +154 / VGK -185
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- VGK: Elo 55.5%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- VGK -165
- WPG +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.4 – 3.1 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −1 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +38 Elo | VGK 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 60.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.0% | Shot share | 54.2%3rd of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 88.3%30th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 25th of 3216–23 | Road vs home | 18–2127th of 32 |
| 21st of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149630th of 32 |
| 17th of 321503 | Elo rating | 150714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–42 | 32–48 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–33 | 17–46 |
| Underdog | 25–9 | 15–2 |
| Overs–unders | 41–38 | 40–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 2–6 VGK in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.