Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals1
- Ivan BarbashevAssists1
- Mark StonePoints1
Avalanche- Nick BlankenburgGoals1
- Nicolas RoyAssists1
- Devon ToewsPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:19Jack Eichel Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P210:56Nick Blankenburg Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (16)2–2
- P22:09Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (37), Kaedan Korczak (12)2–1
- P113:47Mark Stone Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Tomas Hertl (33), Mitch Marner (56)1–1
- P19:17Devon Toews Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (32), Martin Necas (61)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:17Devon Toews Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (32), Martin Necas (61)VGK 0 – 1 COL · COL 54% → 69% +15COL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P113:47Mark Stone Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Tomas Hertl (33), Mitch Marner (56)VGK 1 – 1 COL · VGK 31% → 46% +16VGK 31% → 46%+16 pts
- P22:09Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (37), Kaedan Korczak (12)VGK 2 – 1 COL · VGK 47% → 65% +18VGK 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P210:56Nick Blankenburg Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (16)VGK 2 – 2 COL · COL 33% → 53% +20COL 33% → 53%+20 pts
- OT1:19Jack Eichel Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 3 – 2 COL · VGK 49% → 93% +44VGK 49% → 93%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 54%
- ML VGK +110 / COL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.7 pts
- COL: Elo 66.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -119
- VGK +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.1 – 3.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1586 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −6 | VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +115 Elo | COL 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 61.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.3% | Shot share | 56.4%2nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 91.1%1st of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3218–22 | Road vs home | 25–144th of 32 |
| 31st of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149630th of 32 |
| 15th of 321503 | Elo rating | 15861st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–48 | 40–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–46 | 39–38 |
| Underdog | 14–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 40–39 | 35–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–5 COL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 8.