Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Tyson GrossGoals1
- Matt CoronatoAssists1
- Tyson GrossPoints1
Avalanche- Martin NecasGoals1
- Martin NecasAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:05Nathan MacKinnon Goal (52) Backhand, assists: Martin Necas (60)1–3
- P317:08Tyson Gross Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Matvei Gridin (13), Matt Coronato (25)1–2
- P215:01Martin Necas Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (74), Brent Burns (22)0–2
- P118:44Gabriel Landeskog Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (73), Martin Necas (59)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:44Gabriel Landeskog Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (73), Martin Necas (59)CGY 0 – 1 COL · COL 70% → 84% +13COL 70% → 84%+13 pts
- P215:01Martin Necas Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (74), Brent Burns (22)CGY 0 – 2 COL · COL 84% → 94% +10COL 84% → 94%+10 pts
- P317:08Tyson Gross Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Matvei Gridin (13), Matt Coronato (25)CGY 1 – 2 COL · CGY <1% → 4% +3CGY <1% → 4%+3 pts
- P319:05Nathan MacKinnon Goal (52) Backhand, assists: Martin Necas (60)CGY 1 – 3 COL · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 74%
- ML CGY +270 / COL -340
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- COL: Elo 71.7%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- COL -286
- CGY +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.5 – 4.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1584 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −8 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +161 Elo | COL 71.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 74.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 73.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.61st of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 56.4%2nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 91.0%1st of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3211–28 | Road vs home | 24–144th of 32 |
| 30th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 32 |
| 28th of 321455 | Elo rating | 15841st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–34 | 39–38 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 38–38 |
| Underdog | 34–26 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 41–36 | 35–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 1–6 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.