Vegas Golden Knights at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals2
- Jack EichelAssists1
- Mark StonePoints2
Kraken- Bobby McMannGoals1
- Vince DunnAssists2
- Vince DunnPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Berkly Catton Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Matty Beniers Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Mitch Marner Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P39:16Bobby McMann Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (29)3–3
- P36:11Berkly Catton Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (18), Vince Dunn (32)3–2
- P31:11Brett Howden Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (27), Mitch Marner (55)3–1
- P217:54Jared McCann Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (31), Chandler Stephenson (32)2–1
- P20:55Mark Stone Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Jack Eichel (58), Tomas Hertl (32)2–0
- P110:04Mark Stone Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (28), Noah Hanifin (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:04Mark Stone Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (28), Noah Hanifin (23)VGK 1 – 0 SEA · VGK 62% → 76% +14VGK 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P217:54Jared McCann Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (31), Chandler Stephenson (32)VGK 2 – 1 SEA · SEA 8% → 21% +13SEA 8% → 21%+13 pts
- P31:11Brett Howden Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (27), Mitch Marner (55)VGK 3 – 1 SEA · VGK 80% → 93% +13VGK 80% → 93%+13 pts
- P36:11Berkly Catton Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (18), Vince Dunn (32)VGK 3 – 2 SEA · SEA 5% → 18% +13SEA 5% → 18%+13 pts
- P39:16Bobby McMann Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (29)VGK 3 – 3 SEA · SEA 16% → 44% +29SEA 16% → 44%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 63%
- ML VGK -192 / SEA +160
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- VGK: Elo 53.9%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -171
- SEA +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.6 – 2.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −2 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +27 Elo | VGK 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.3% | Shot share | 46.5%29th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 90.2%9th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 19th of 3218–21 | Road vs home | 17–2128th of 32 |
| 31st of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 32 |
| 15th of 321506 | Elo rating | 144929th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–47 | 45–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–45 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 14–2 | 40–25 |
| Overs–unders | 39–39 | 34–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 5–4 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.