Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Brayden McNabbGoals1
- Shea TheodoreAssists1
- Brayden McNabbPoints1
Canucks- Max SassonGoals1
- Teddy BluegerAssists1
- Max SassonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:13Cole Smith Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (15)2–1
- P215:46Brayden McNabb Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (29), Brandon Saad (6)1–1
- P212:50Max Sasson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (8), Linus Karlsson (19)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:50Max Sasson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (8), Linus Karlsson (19)VGK 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 37% → 58% +21VAN 37% → 58%+21 pts
- P215:46Brayden McNabb Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (29), Brandon Saad (6)VGK 1 – 1 VAN · VGK 40% → 62% +23VGK 40% → 62%+23 pts
- P312:13Cole Smith Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (15)VGK 2 – 1 VAN · VGK 57% → 88% +31VGK 57% → 88%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 69%
- ML VGK -258 / VAN +210
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- VGK: Elo 61.1%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -223
- VAN +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.8 – 2.7 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1398 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −13 | VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · VAN: Nikita Tolopilo: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +78 Elo | VGK 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 63.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.932nd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −1.232nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.2% | Shot share | 46.8%27th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 88.0%31st of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 20th of 3217–21 | Road vs home | 8–3132nd of 32 |
| 29th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 150117th of 32 |
| 16th of 321504 | Elo rating | 139832nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–46 | 34–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 17–44 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 14–2 | 33–33 |
| Overs–unders | 39–38 | 44–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 8–2 VAN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.