Utah Mammoth at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Lawson CrouseGoals1
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists1
- Lawson CrousePoints1
Flames- Brayden PachalGoals1
- Brayden PachalAssists2
- Brayden PachalPoints3
Scoring summary
- P311:20Lawson Crouse Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (59), MacKenzie Weegar (22)1–4
- P39:10Brayden Pachal Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Aydar Suniev (1), Olli Maatta (13)0–4
- P36:01Mikael Backlund Goal (17) Poke, assists: Blake Coleman (15), Brayden Pachal (6)0–3
- P18:27Connor Zary Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Zayne Parekh (5), Zach Whitecloud (13)0–2
- P17:06Matt Coronato Goal (18) Wrap-around, assists: Morgan Frost (21), Brayden Pachal (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:06Matt Coronato Goal (18) Wrap-around, assists: Morgan Frost (21), Brayden Pachal (5)UTA 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 41% → 57% +15CGY 41% → 57%+15 pts
- P18:27Connor Zary Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Zayne Parekh (5), Zach Whitecloud (13)UTA 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 57% → 72% +15CGY 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P36:01Mikael Backlund Goal (17) Poke, assists: Blake Coleman (15), Brayden Pachal (6)UTA 0 – 3 CGY · CGY 92% → 98% +7CGY 92% → 98%+7 pts
- P39:10Brayden Pachal Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Aydar Suniev (1), Olli Maatta (13)UTA 0 – 4 CGY · CGY >99% → >99% +1CGY >99% → >99%+1 pts
- P311:20Lawson Crouse Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (59), MacKenzie Weegar (22)UTA 1 – 4 CGY · UTA <1% → <1% +0UTA <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 59%
- ML UTA -162 / CGY +136
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- UTA: Elo 53.4%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -146
- CGY +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.5 – 3.0 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CGY and UTA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −18 | −4 | UTA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +24 Elo | UTA 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.630th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.1%11th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 10th of 3221–19 | Road vs home | 21–1710th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 32 |
| 11th of 321521 | Elo rating | 144929th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–43 | 43–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–34 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 34–28 |
| Overs–unders | 41–38 | 41–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 4–1 CGY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.
