Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Hunter BrzustewiczGoals1
- Olli MaattaAssists1
- Hunter BrzustewiczPoints1
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals1
- Ryker EvansAssists2
- Ryker EvansPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:31Jordan Eberle Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (9)1–4
- P219:55Matty Beniers Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (8), Jamie Oleksiak (9)1–3
- P213:16Chandler Stephenson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (33), Jaden Schwartz (14)1–2
- P22:05Freddy Gaudreau Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (26), Jared McCann (20)1–1
- P21:11Hunter Brzustewicz Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (26), Olli Maatta (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:11Hunter Brzustewicz Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (26), Olli Maatta (12)CGY 1 – 0 SEA · CGY 47% → 64% +18CGY 47% → 64%+18 pts
- P22:05Freddy Gaudreau Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (26), Jared McCann (20)CGY 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 35% → 53% +18SEA 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P213:16Chandler Stephenson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (33), Jaden Schwartz (14)CGY 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 53% → 73% +20SEA 53% → 73%+20 pts
- P219:55Matty Beniers Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (8), Jamie Oleksiak (9)CGY 1 – 3 SEA · SEA 76% → 91% +15SEA 76% → 91%+15 pts
- P318:31Jordan Eberle Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (9)CGY 1 – 4 SEA · SEA >99% → >99% +0SEA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML CGY +110 / SEA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- CGY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.1 – 3.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +5 | CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · SEA: Nikke Kokko (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +40 Elo | SEA 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 60.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 46.5%29th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.2%8th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3211–29 | Road vs home | 18–2124th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 32 |
| 28th of 321453 | Elo rating | 145229th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–35 | 46–32 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 34–27 | 41–25 |
| Overs–unders | 41–37 | 35–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 5–5 SEA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.