San Jose Sharks at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- John KlingbergAssists3
- William EklundPoints3
Jets- Cole KoepkeGoals1
- Cole KoepkePoints1
Scoring summary
- P31:14Macklin Celebrini Goal (45) Snap Shot, assists: John Klingberg (17), Will Smith (35)6–1
- P219:55William Eklund Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (16), Kiefer Sherwood (13)5–1
- P218:01Michael Misa Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: William Eklund (38), John Klingberg (16)4–1
- P25:51Collin Graf Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P116:54Will Smith Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (70), John Klingberg (15)2–1
- P16:26Igor Chernyshov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (37), Macklin Celebrini (69)1–1
- P13:28Cole Koepke Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:28Cole Koepke Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: noneSJ 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 59% → 73% +14WPG 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P16:26Igor Chernyshov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (37), Macklin Celebrini (69)SJ 1 – 1 WPG · SJ 27% → 41% +14SJ 27% → 41%+14 pts
- P116:54Will Smith Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (70), John Klingberg (15)SJ 2 – 1 WPG · SJ 42% → 59% +17SJ 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P25:51Collin Graf Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSJ 3 – 1 WPG · SJ 62% → 79% +17SJ 62% → 79%+17 pts
- P218:01Michael Misa Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: William Eklund (38), John Klingberg (16)SJ 4 – 1 WPG · SJ 86% → 95% +10SJ 86% → 95%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 59%
- ML SJ +136 / WPG -162
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.1 pts
- WPG: Elo 66.4%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -146
- SJ +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.0 – 3.5 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +12 | −7 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +118 Elo | WPG 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 63.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 48.8%21st of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.4%19th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3217–23 | Road vs home | 19–2125th of 32 |
| 21st of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 32 |
| 30th of 321424 | Elo rating | 149619th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 48–33 | 37–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 12–33 |
| Underdog | 45–24 | 25–11 |
| Overs–unders | 41–40 | 43–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 3–5 WPG in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.