San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Shakir MukhamadullinGoals1
- Tyler ToffoliAssists1
- Shakir MukhamadullinPoints1
Ducks- John CarlsonGoals3
- Mikael GranlundAssists2
- John CarlsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:32Frank Vatrano Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Mason McTavish (22)1–6
- P314:03John Carlson Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (38), Mikael Granlund (18)1–5
- P312:40Shakir Mukhamadullin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (30)1–4
- P310:31John Carlson Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (37), Beckett Sennecke (37)0–4
- P25:15Alex Killorn Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (36)0–3
- P16:20John Carlson Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (17), Pavel Mintyukov (14)0–2
- P12:59Leo Carlsson Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (26), Pavel Mintyukov (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:59Leo Carlsson Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (26), Pavel Mintyukov (13)SJ 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 61% → 74% +13ANA 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P16:20John Carlson Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (17), Pavel Mintyukov (14)SJ 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 74% → 85% +11ANA 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P25:15Alex Killorn Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (36)SJ 0 – 3 ANA · ANA 88% → 95% +7ANA 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P310:31John Carlson Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (37), Beckett Sennecke (37)SJ 0 – 4 ANA · ANA >99% → >99% +0ANA >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P312:40Shakir Mukhamadullin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (30)SJ 1 – 4 ANA · SJ <1% → <1% +0SJ <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 61%
- ML SJ +145 / ANA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- ANA: Elo 65.9%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ANA -156
- SJ +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.6 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −16 | +1 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +115 Elo | ANA 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 63.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 51.6%7th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 88.4%26th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3216–21 | Road vs home | 23–169th of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149728th of 32 |
| 30th of 321432 | Elo rating | 146527th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–30 | 35–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 5–24 |
| Underdog | 44–23 | 30–19 |
| Overs–unders | 38–39 | 46–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 3–7 ANA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.