Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals3
- Connor McDavidAssists2
- Connor McDavidPoints5
Sharks- Kiefer SherwoodGoals1
- Alexander WennbergAssists1
- Kiefer SherwoodPoints1
Scoring summary
- P214:13Connor McDavid Goal (47) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (15)5–2
- P25:53Connor McDavid Goal (46) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (70), Mattias Ekholm (35)4–2
- P24:37Kiefer Sherwood Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Wennberg (36), William Eklund (35)3–2
- P23:33Jack Roslovic Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (86)3–1
- P118:38Vasily Podkolzin Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (36), Connor McDavid (85)2–1
- P16:18Connor McDavid Goal (45) Poke, assists: Evan Bouchard (69), Vasily Podkolzin (18)1–1
- P14:27Macklin Celebrini Goal (42) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (32), Will Smith (33)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:27Macklin Celebrini Goal (42) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (32), Will Smith (33)EDM 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 50% → 65% +15SJ 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P16:18Connor McDavid Goal (45) Poke, assists: Evan Bouchard (69), Vasily Podkolzin (18)EDM 1 – 1 SJ · EDM 35% → 50% +15EDM 35% → 50%+15 pts
- P118:38Vasily Podkolzin Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (36), Connor McDavid (85)EDM 2 – 1 SJ · EDM 50% → 67% +17EDM 50% → 67%+17 pts
- P24:37Kiefer Sherwood Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Wennberg (36), William Eklund (35)EDM 3 – 2 SJ · SJ 17% → 32% +15SJ 17% → 32%+15 pts
- P25:53Connor McDavid Goal (46) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (70), Mattias Ekholm (35)EDM 4 – 2 SJ · EDM 68% → 83% +15EDM 68% → 83%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sharks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SJ 50%
- ML EDM -108 / SJ -112
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- SJ: Elo 47.2%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- SJ -102
- EDM +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.2 – 3.3 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +10 | EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +20 Elo | EDM 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SJ 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.4% | Shot share | 46.7%27th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 88.8%25th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 18th of 3218–21 | Road vs home | 21–1815th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 150119th of 32 |
| 9th of 321525 | Elo rating | 143630th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–45 | 47–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–39 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 44–22 |
| Overs–unders | 47–31 | 37–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 8–2 SJ in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.