San Jose Sharks at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Michael MisaGoals1
- Kiefer SherwoodAssists2
- Kiefer SherwoodPoints2
Blackhawks- Louis CrevierGoals2
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Louis CrevierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:44Nick Lardis Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (45), Wyatt Kaiser (11)2–5
- P310:32Louis Crevier Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (26)2–4
- P38:35Ryan Greene Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Ethan Del Mastro (1), Andre Burakovsky (22)2–3
- P33:51Louis Crevier Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (44)2–2
- P219:30Sam Rinzel Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (15)2–1
- P25:17Michael Misa Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (34), Kiefer Sherwood (12)2–0
- P18:09Mario Ferraro Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:09Mario Ferraro Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (11)SJ 1 – 0 CHI · SJ 53% → 68% +15SJ 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P219:30Sam Rinzel Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (15)SJ 2 – 1 CHI · CHI 10% → 25% +15CHI 10% → 25%+15 pts
- P33:51Louis Crevier Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (44)SJ 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 23% → 48% +26CHI 23% → 48%+26 pts
- P38:35Ryan Greene Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Ethan Del Mastro (1), Andre Burakovsky (22)SJ 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 49% → 79% +30CHI 49% → 79%+30 pts
- P310:32Louis Crevier Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (26)SJ 2 – 4 CHI · CHI 81% → 96% +15CHI 81% → 96%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sharks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SJ 53%
- ML SJ -125 / CHI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- SJ: Elo 46.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SJ -114
- CHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.3 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1397 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −16 | +2 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +22 Elo | CHI 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 44.9%31st of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 89.6%16th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 1–932nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3217–22 | Road vs home | 13–2731st of 32 |
| 18th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 32 |
| 30th of 321428 | Elo rating | 139732nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 48–32 | 49–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 45–24 | 49–29 |
| Overs–unders | 40–40 | 35–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 3–5 CHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.