Vancouver Canucks at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Teddy BluegerGoals1
- Victor ManciniAssists1
- Teddy BluegerPoints1
Sharks- Igor ChernyshovGoals2
- Macklin CelebriniAssists2
- Igor ChernyshovPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Linus Karlsson Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Jake DeBrusk Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Macklin Celebrini Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P317:00Teddy Blueger Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (20)3–3
- P312:44Igor Chernyshov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (68), Dmitry Orlov (33)2–3
- P217:37Jake DeBrusk Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (39), Elias Pettersson (34)2–2
- P29:02Tyler Toffoli Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Dickinson (13), Michael Misa (11)1–2
- P25:56Marco Rossi Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Mancini (3)1–1
- P116:19Igor Chernyshov Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Macklin Celebrini (67)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:56Marco Rossi Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Mancini (3)VAN 1 – 1 SJ · VAN 23% → 40% +17VAN 23% → 40%+17 pts
- P29:02Tyler Toffoli Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Dickinson (13), Michael Misa (11)VAN 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 59% → 77% +18SJ 59% → 77%+18 pts
- P217:37Jake DeBrusk Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (39), Elias Pettersson (34)VAN 2 – 2 SJ · VAN 21% → 42% +21VAN 21% → 42%+21 pts
- P312:44Igor Chernyshov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (68), Dmitry Orlov (33)VAN 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 55% → 88% +33SJ 55% → 88%+33 pts
- P317:00Teddy Blueger Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (20)VAN 3 – 3 SJ · VAN 4% → 47% +43VAN 4% → 47%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sharks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- SJ 63%
- ML VAN +160 / SJ -192
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- SJ: Elo 58.1%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- SJ -171
- VAN +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 3.6 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1394 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −16 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.41 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SJ +57 Elo | SJ 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 64.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SJ 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.3 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 27th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 46.5%29th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 88.6%25th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 29th of 3214–24 | Road vs home | 21–1918th of 32 |
| 18th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150117th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321394 | Elo rating | 142830th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–43 | 47–31 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 34–34 | 44–24 |
| Overs–unders | 44–34 | 39–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 7–4 SJ in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.