Vancouver Canucks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Marcus PetterssonGoals1
- Brock BoeserAssists1
- Marcus PetterssonPoints1
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals2
- Artemi PanarinAssists2
- Adrian KempePoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:17Trevor Moore Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Alex Laferriere (20), Mikey Anderson (16)1–4
- P219:31Adrian Kempe Goal (34) Tip-In, assists: Joel Edmundson (20), Artemi Panarin (55)1–3
- P115:48Joel Armia Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (7)1–2
- P114:17Marcus Pettersson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (24), Liam Ohgren (10)1–1
- P11:29Adrian Kempe Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (32), Artemi Panarin (54)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:29Adrian Kempe Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (32), Artemi Panarin (54)VAN 0 – 1 LA · LA 71% → 82% +11LA 71% → 82%+11 pts
- P114:17Marcus Pettersson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (24), Liam Ohgren (10)VAN 1 – 1 LA · VAN 18% → 31% +13VAN 18% → 31%+13 pts
- P115:48Joel Armia Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (7)VAN 1 – 2 LA · LA 69% → 82% +13LA 69% → 82%+13 pts
- P219:31Adrian Kempe Goal (34) Tip-In, assists: Joel Edmundson (20), Artemi Panarin (55)VAN 1 – 3 LA · LA 83% → 94% +11LA 83% → 94%+11 pts
- P39:17Trevor Moore Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Alex Laferriere (20), Mikey Anderson (16)VAN 1 – 4 LA · LA 98% → >99% +2LA 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- LA 71%
- ML VAN +235 / LA -290
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- LA: Elo 67.1%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- LA -249
- VAN +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.6 – 3.9 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1396 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −2 | VAN: Nikita Tolopilo: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +124 Elo | LA 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 69.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 27th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 50.7%12th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 89.7%17th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3214–23 | Road vs home | 13–2631st of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321396 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–42 | 28–49 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 9–38 |
| Underdog | 34–33 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 44–33 | 36–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 3–6 LA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.