Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals2
- Nick SuzukiAssists3
- Nick SuzukiPoints4
Penguins- Tommy NovakGoals2
- Evgeni MalkinAssists2
- Tommy NovakPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:33Tommy Novak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (2), Kris Letang (3)5–6
- P319:16Ivan Demidov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (3), Lane Hutson (3)5–5
- P318:52Chris Kreider Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (2), Ivan Demidov (1)4–5
- P33:31Cole Caufield Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (1)3–5
- P218:46Nick Suzuki Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Lane Hutson (2), Noah Dobson (1)2–5
- P215:32Ben Kindel Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (3), Tommy Novak (2)1–5
- P214:01Tommy Novak Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Chinakhov (1), Evgeni Malkin (1)1–4
- P27:59Samuel Girard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (2), Kaedan Korczak (3)1–3
- P20:32Declan Carlile Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (2), Erik Karlsson (2)1–2
- P114:07Evgeni Malkin Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Kris Letang (2), Hendrix Lapierre (2)1–1
- P13:49Cole Caufield Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (1), Lane Hutson (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:07Evgeni Malkin Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Kris Letang (2), Hendrix Lapierre (2)MTL 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 33% → 49% +16PIT 33% → 49%+16 pts
- P20:32Declan Carlile Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (2), Erik Karlsson (2)MTL 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 49% → 67% +17PIT 49% → 67%+17 pts
- P27:59Samuel Girard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (2), Kaedan Korczak (3)MTL 1 – 3 PIT · PIT 68% → 84% +15PIT 68% → 84%+15 pts
- P319:16Ivan Demidov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (3), Lane Hutson (3)MTL 5 – 5 PIT · MTL <1% → 50% +50MTL <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1:33Tommy Novak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (2), Kris Letang (3)MTL 5 – 6 PIT · PIT 50% → 94% +44PIT 50% → 94%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 51%
- ML MTL -115 / PIT -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- MTL: Elo 47.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MTL -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.3 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +5 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +20 Elo | PIT 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 51.1%11th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.1%24th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 19–2125th of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 6th of 321531 | Elo rating | 150815th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  MTL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 58–43 | 49–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–36 | 13–23 |
| Underdog | 47–7 | 36–16 |
| Overs–unders | 54–47 | 50–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–7 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.