Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Montreal Canadiens at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast

FinalCAR wins series 4-1

Away

Canadiens

48-24-10

1–6

at

Home

Hurricanes

53-22-7

MTL 30%CAR 70%

You didn't pick this one.

Lenovo Center · TNT, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.

CAR favored MTL favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3CAR50%MTL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canadiens
Hurricanes

Scoring summary

  • P316:19Seth Jarvis Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (3), Andrei Svechnikov (4)1–6
  • P310:50Cole Caufield Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (13)1–5
  • P218:02Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (5), Nikolaj Ehlers (5)0–5
  • P27:19Jackson Blake Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (11), Logan Stankoven (3)0–4
  • P116:52Eric Robinson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (3)0–3
  • P115:12Logan Stankoven Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (10), Alexander Nikishin (1)0–2
  • P19:17Taylor Hall Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (2), Jackson Blake (10)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P19:17Taylor Hall Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (2), Jackson Blake (10)MTL 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 68% → 81% +13
  2. P115:12Logan Stankoven Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (10), Alexander Nikishin (1)MTL 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 81% → 90% +9
  3. P116:52Eric Robinson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (3)MTL 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 90% → 96% +6
  4. P27:19Jackson Blake Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (11), Logan Stankoven (3)MTL 0 – 4 CAR · CAR 97% → >99% +2
  5. P218:02Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (5), Nikolaj Ehlers (5)MTL 0 – 5 CAR · CAR >99% → >99% +0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Hurricanes 70%

SolidHit
MTL 30%CAR 70%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.

Market
CAR 70%
ML MTL +215 / CAR -265
Pre-line forecast
CAR 66%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CAR 64%
Ratings vs. market
−5.9 pts
CAR: Elo 63.7%, market 69.6%
Fair odds
CAR -229
MTL +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MTL 2.2 – 3.3 CAR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMTLCARWhy
Team rating15421599Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−1+4MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCAR +98 EloCAR 63.7%
Market-implied ratingsCAR 66.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCAR 65.9%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCAR 69.6%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Montreal Canadiens and Carolina Hurricanes compared, with each team's league rank
MTLStatCAR
6th of 323.5Goals scored3.62nd of 32
18th of 323.1Goals allowed2.94th of 32
9th of 32+0.3Margin+0.73rd of 32
22nd of 3248.6%Shot share57.3%1st of 32
18th of 3289.5%Save percentage88.6%26th of 32
2nd of 327–3Last 107–32nd of 32
2nd of 3224–17Road vs home29–121st of 32
11th of 321502Opponent Elo149920th of 32
7th of 321542Elo rating15991st of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CanadiensHurricanes
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMTLCAR
Puck line58–4239–55
Last 107–35–5
Favorite11–3632–53
Underdog47–67–2
Overs–unders53–4747–47
Overs–unders, last 105–52–8

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MTL 6–7 CAR in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.