Montreal Canadiens at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Juraj SlafkovskyGoals2
- Nick SuzukiAssists3
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints3
Hurricanes- Eric RobinsonGoals1
- William CarrierAssists1
- Eric RobinsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:32Juraj Slafkovský Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (12)6–2
- P37:05Juraj Slafkovský Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (11), Cole Caufield (6)5–2
- P22:46Eric Robinson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (1)4–2
- P111:32Ivan Demidov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (3), Jake Evans (7)4–1
- P18:11Alexandre Texier Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (6), Kaiden Guhle (7)3–1
- P14:04Phillip Danault Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (5)2–1
- P11:00Cole Caufield Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (6), Nick Suzuki (10)1–1
- P10:33Seth Jarvis Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (3), Sebastian Aho (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:00Cole Caufield Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (6), Nick Suzuki (10)MTL 1 – 1 CAR · MTL 22% → 34% +12MTL 22% → 34%+12 pts
- P14:04Phillip Danault Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (5)MTL 2 – 1 CAR · MTL 35% → 49% +15MTL 35% → 49%+15 pts
- P18:11Alexandre Texier Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (6), Kaiden Guhle (7)MTL 3 – 1 CAR · MTL 51% → 66% +15MTL 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P111:32Ivan Demidov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (3), Jake Evans (7)MTL 4 – 1 CAR · MTL 67% → 80% +13MTL 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P22:46Eric Robinson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (1)MTL 4 – 2 CAR · CAR 14% → 27% +13CAR 14% → 27%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 66%
- ML MTL +180 / CAR -218
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 63.1%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -192
- MTL +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.3 – 3.2 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +5 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +93 Elo | CAR 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.94th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 57.3%1st of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 29–121st of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 6th of 321544 | Elo rating | 15972nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 55–41 | 38–52 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–36 | 31–50 |
| Underdog | 44–5 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 52–44 | 46–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 5–4 CAR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.