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Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast

FinalMTL leads series 3-2

Away

Canadiens

48-24-10

6–3

at

Home

Sabres

50-23-9

MTL 48%BUF 52%

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Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.

BUF favored MTL favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3BUF50%MTL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canadiens
Sabres

Scoring summary

  • P33:32Ivan Demidov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (5), Nick Suzuki (8)6–3
  • P217:33Nick Suzuki Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (4), Lane Hutson (10)5–3
  • P216:15Jake Evans Goal (1) Poke, assists: Ivan Demidov (5), Alex Newhook (2)4–3
  • P28:01Josh Anderson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (9), Phillip Danault (5)3–3
  • P110:15Konsta Helenius Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (2), Rasmus Dahlin (6)2–3
  • P17:54Alexandre Texier Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Alexandre Carrier (3), Phillip Danault (4)2–2
  • P17:45Josh Doan Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Owen Power (5)1–2
  • P16:31Cole Caufield Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (7), Juraj Slafkovský (3)1–1
  • P12:00Jason Zucker Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Jack Quinn (4), Conor Timmins (2)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P17:54Alexandre Texier Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Alexandre Carrier (3), Phillip Danault (4)MTL 2 – 2 BUF · MTL 33% → 48% +15
  2. P110:15Konsta Helenius Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (2), Rasmus Dahlin (6)MTL 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 52% → 67% +15
  3. P28:01Josh Anderson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (9), Phillip Danault (5)MTL 3 – 3 BUF · MTL 30% → 49% +19
  4. P216:15Jake Evans Goal (1) Poke, assists: Ivan Demidov (5), Alex Newhook (2)MTL 4 – 3 BUF · MTL 49% → 71% +22
  5. P217:33Nick Suzuki Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (4), Lane Hutson (10)MTL 5 – 3 BUF · MTL 72% → 88% +16

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Sabres 52%

Toss-upMiss
MTL 48%BUF 52%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
BUF 52%
ML MTL -102 / BUF -118
Pre-line forecast
BUF 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BUF 57%
Ratings vs. market
+5.0 pts
BUF: Elo 56.7%, market 51.7%
Fair odds
BUF -107
MTL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MTL 2.7 – 2.8 BUF
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMTLBUFWhy
Team rating15421557Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+4+1MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsBUF +47 EloBUF 56.7%
Market-implied ratingsBUF 54.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBUF 54.7%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastBUF 51.7%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres compared, with each team's league rank
MTLStatBUF
6th of 323.5Goals scored3.55th of 32
18th of 323.1Goals allowed2.97th of 32
9th of 32+0.3Margin+0.65th of 32
22nd of 3248.6%Shot share49.2%19th of 32
18th of 3289.5%Save percentage90.7%3rd of 32
2nd of 327–3Last 106–48th of 32
2nd of 3224–17Road vs home26–153rd of 32
11th of 321502Opponent Elo150214th of 32
6th of 321542Elo rating15574th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CanadiensSabres
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMTLBUF
Puck line53–4053–39
Last 108–25–5
Favorite11–3521–27
Underdog42–532–12
Overs–unders50–4345–47
Overs–unders, last 103–75–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MTL 10–6 BUF in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 16.