Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Kirby DachGoals1
- Zack BolducAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints1
Sabres- Josh DoanGoals1
- Zach BensonAssists2
- Ryan McLeodPoints2
Scoring summary
- P216:31Kirby Dach Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (4)2–4
- P29:01Bowen Byram Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (2)1–4
- P23:32Jordan Greenway Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (1)1–3
- P119:16Nick Suzuki Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (1), Ivan Demidov (2)1–2
- P113:26Ryan McLeod Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (3), Josh Doan (3)0–2
- P14:31Josh Doan Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:31Josh Doan Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (2)MTL 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 56% → 70% +14BUF 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P113:26Ryan McLeod Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (3), Josh Doan (3)MTL 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 71% → 83% +12BUF 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P119:16Nick Suzuki Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (1), Ivan Demidov (2)MTL 1 – 2 BUF · MTL 15% → 28% +13MTL 15% → 28%+13 pts
- P23:32Jordan Greenway Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (1)MTL 1 – 3 BUF · BUF 72% → 86% +13BUF 72% → 86%+13 pts
- P29:01Bowen Byram Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (2)MTL 1 – 4 BUF · BUF 87% → 95% +8BUF 87% → 95%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 56%
- ML MTL +120 / BUF -142
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- BUF: Elo 58.6%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -129
- MTL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.6 – 2.9 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +4 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +60 Elo | BUF 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.7%3rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 26–153rd of 32 |
| 11th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 7th of 321536 | Elo rating | 15633rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 51–38 | 51–37 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–34 | 20–26 |
| Underdog | 41–4 | 31–11 |
| Overs–unders | 47–42 | 42–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 8–4 BUF in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 12.