Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Josh DoanAssists2
- Tage ThompsonPoints2
Canadiens- Alex NewhookGoals1
- Jake EvansAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints1
Scoring summary
- P34:41Zach Benson Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Josh Doan (7), Tage Thompson (7)3–2
- P27:00Tage Thompson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (5)2–2
- P119:47Cole Caufield Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (2), Lane Hutson (8)1–2
- P110:08Alex Newhook Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (5), Ivan Demidov (4)1–1
- P16:32Mattias Samuelsson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (1), Josh Doan (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:32Mattias Samuelsson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (1), Josh Doan (6)BUF 1 – 0 MTL · BUF 43% → 59% +15BUF 43% → 59%+15 pts
- P110:08Alex Newhook Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (5), Ivan Demidov (4)BUF 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 41% → 57% +16MTL 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P119:47Cole Caufield Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (2), Lane Hutson (8)BUF 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 56% → 72% +16MTL 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P27:00Tage Thompson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (5)BUF 2 – 2 MTL · BUF 27% → 45% +18BUF 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P34:41Zach Benson Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Josh Doan (7), Tage Thompson (7)BUF 3 – 2 MTL · BUF 46% → 74% +27BUF 46% → 74%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 57%
- ML BUF +124 / MTL -148
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- MTL: Elo 54.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- MTL -134
- BUF +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.5 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +5 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +30 Elo | MTL 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.39th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 89.5%18th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 24–178th of 32 |
| 13th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 4th of 321554 | Elo rating | 15456th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 52–39 | 53–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 21–27 | 11–34 |
| Underdog | 31–12 | 42–5 |
| Overs–unders | 45–46 | 50–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 5–10 MTL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 15.
- May 10BUF 2 @ MTL 6PlayoffsPicked MTL 55%Hit
- May 8MTL 5 @ BUF 1PlayoffsPicked BUF 59%Miss
- May 6MTL 2 @ BUF 4PlayoffsPicked BUF 56%Hit
- Jan 31MTL 4 @ BUF 2Picked BUF 53%Miss
- Jan 22BUF 4 @ MTL 2Picked MTL 52%Miss
- Jan 15MTL 3 @ BUF 5Picked MTL 53%Miss
- Oct 20BUF 2 @ MTL 4Picked MTL 56%Hit
- Mar 3BUF 3 @ MTL 4Picked MTL 53%Hit