Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Alex NewhookGoals2
- Phillip DanaultAssists1
- Alex NewhookPoints2
Sabres- Zach BensonGoals1
- Conor TimminsAssists1
- Zach BensonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:59Nick Suzuki Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (2)5–1
- P33:54Alexandre Carrier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none4–1
- P219:22Zach Benson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Conor Timmins (1), Josh Doan (4)3–1
- P24:47Alex Newhook Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (2), Noah Dobson (1)3–0
- P14:27Mike Matheson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (2)2–0
- P11:36Alex Newhook Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Kaiden Guhle (5), Lane Hutson (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:36Alex Newhook Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Kaiden Guhle (5), Lane Hutson (5)MTL 1 – 0 BUF · MTL 41% → 55% +15MTL 41% → 55%+15 pts
- P14:27Mike Matheson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (2)MTL 2 – 0 BUF · MTL 56% → 70% +14MTL 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P24:47Alex Newhook Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (2), Noah Dobson (1)MTL 3 – 0 BUF · MTL 78% → 89% +11MTL 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P219:22Zach Benson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Conor Timmins (1), Josh Doan (4)MTL 3 – 1 BUF · BUF 4% → 13% +9BUF 4% → 13%+9 pts
- P33:54Alexandre Carrier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneMTL 4 – 1 BUF · MTL 90% → 98% +8MTL 90% → 98%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 59%
- ML MTL +136 / BUF -162
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- BUF: Elo 59.7%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -146
- MTL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.5 – 3.0 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +5 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +69 Elo | BUF 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.7%3rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 26–153rd of 32 |
| 11th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 7th of 321533 | Elo rating | 15663rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 51–39 | 52–37 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–34 | 21–26 |
| Underdog | 41–5 | 31–11 |
| Overs–unders | 48–42 | 43–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 8–5 BUF in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 13.