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Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast

FinalMTL leads series 2-1

Away

Sabres

50-23-9

2–6

at

Home

Canadiens

48-24-10

BUF 45%MTL 55%

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Bell Centre · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.

MTL favored BUF favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3MTL50%BUF

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Sabres
Canadiens

Scoring summary

  • P315:14Alex Newhook Goal (5) , assists: Nick Suzuki (6), Jake Evans (4)2–6
  • P38:46Kirby Dach Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (3), Phillip Danault (3)2–5
  • P214:46Rasmus Dahlin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (6), Josh Doan (5)2–4
  • P212:17Juraj Slafkovský Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (7), Cole Caufield (4)1–4
  • P210:43Zachary Bolduc Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Joseph Veleno (1), Alexandre Carrier (2)1–3
  • P26:05Cole Caufield Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (6), Ivan Demidov (3)1–2
  • P115:31Alex Newhook Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (3)1–1
  • P10:53Tage Thompson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (4)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P10:53Tage Thompson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (4)BUF 1 – 0 MTL · BUF 45% → 59% +15
  2. P115:31Alex Newhook Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (3)BUF 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 38% → 54% +17
  3. P26:05Cole Caufield Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (6), Ivan Demidov (3)BUF 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 54% → 72% +18
  4. P210:43Zachary Bolduc Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Joseph Veleno (1), Alexandre Carrier (2)BUF 1 – 3 MTL · MTL 73% → 87% +14
  5. P212:17Juraj Slafkovský Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (7), Cole Caufield (4)BUF 1 – 4 MTL · MTL 88% → 96% +8

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Canadiens 55%

LeanHit
BUF 45%MTL 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
MTL 55%
ML BUF +114 / MTL -135
Pre-line forecast
MTL 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MTL 53%
Ratings vs. market
−2.6 pts
MTL: Elo 52.5%, market 55.1%
Fair odds
MTL -123
BUF +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BUF 2.6 – 2.9 MTL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBUFMTLWhy
Team rating15591540Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+3+5BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMTL +18 EloMTL 52.5%
Market-implied ratingsMTL 52.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMTL 52.1%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMTL 55.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens compared, with each team's league rank
BUFStatMTL
5th of 323.5Goals scored3.56th of 32
7th of 322.9Goals allowed3.118th of 32
5th of 32+0.6Margin+0.39th of 32
19th of 3249.2%Shot share48.6%22nd of 32
3rd of 3290.7%Save percentage89.5%18th of 32
8th of 326–4Last 107–32nd of 32
2nd of 3224–17Road vs home24–178th of 32
14th of 321501Opponent Elo150311th of 32
4th of 321559Elo rating15407th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

SabresCanadiens
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBUFMTL
Puck line52–3852–39
Last 106–48–2
Favorite21–2710–34
Underdog31–1142–5
Overs–unders44–4649–42
Overs–unders, last 105–53–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BUF 5–9 MTL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 14.