Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Jordan MartinookAssists2
- Jordan StaalPoints2
Flyers- Trevor ZegrasGoals1
- Emil AndraeAssists1
- Trevor ZegrasPoints1
Scoring summary
- P37:08Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (2), K'Andre Miller (5)4–1
- P33:52Andrei Svechnikov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (1), Shayne Gostisbehere (2)3–1
- P215:59Jalen Chatfield Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (3), Jordan Martinook (1)2–1
- P22:31Trevor Zegras Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Emil Andrae (1), Porter Martone (2)1–1
- P117:27Jordan Staal Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (2), Shayne Gostisbehere (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:27Jordan Staal Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (2), Shayne Gostisbehere (1)CAR 1 – 0 PHI · CAR 58% → 74% +16CAR 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P22:31Trevor Zegras Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Emil Andrae (1), Porter Martone (2)CAR 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 25% → 42% +17PHI 25% → 42%+17 pts
- P215:59Jalen Chatfield Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (3), Jordan Martinook (1)CAR 2 – 1 PHI · CAR 56% → 77% +21CAR 56% → 77%+21 pts
- P33:52Andrei Svechnikov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (1), Shayne Gostisbehere (2)CAR 3 – 1 PHI · CAR 80% → 94% +14CAR 80% → 94%+14 pts
- P37:08Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (2), K'Andre Miller (5)CAR 4 – 1 PHI · CAR 95% → >99% +4CAR 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 60%
- ML CAR -166 / PHI +140
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 57.1%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- CAR -150
- PHI +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 2.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +6 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +50 Elo | CAR 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.3% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.1%23rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 20–2121st of 32 |
| 19th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321591 | Elo rating | 150415th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–51 | 57–33 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–49 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 46–17 |
| Overs–unders | 46–42 | 44–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 11–2 PHI in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.
- May 4PHI 2 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 70%Hit
- May 2PHI 0 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 69%Hit
- Apr 13CAR 2 @ PHI 3Picked PHI 59%Hit
- Dec 14PHI 2 @ CAR 3Picked CAR 69%Hit
- Dec 13CAR 4 @ PHI 3Picked CAR 62%Hit
- Oct 11PHI 3 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 72%Hit
- Mar 15CAR 5 @ PHI 0Picked CAR 61%Hit
- Nov 20CAR 4 @ PHI 1Picked CAR 67%Hit