Carolina Hurricanes at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Logan StankovenGoals1
- Taylor HallAssists2
- Taylor HallPoints2
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals1
- Nick CousinsAssists1
- Drake BathersonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P217:29Jackson Blake Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (2), Taylor Hall (4)2–1
- P216:06Drake Batherson Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Nick Cousins (1)1–1
- P15:13Logan Stankoven Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (3), Eric Robinson (1)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:13Logan Stankoven Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (3), Eric Robinson (1)CAR 1 – 0 OTT · CAR 48% → 63% +15CAR 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P216:06Drake Batherson Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Nick Cousins (1)CAR 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 30% → 52% +22OTT 30% → 52%+22 pts
- P217:29Jackson Blake Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (2), Taylor Hall (4)CAR 2 – 1 OTT · CAR 48% → 71% +23CAR 48% → 71%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 53%
- ML CAR +102 / OTT -122
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- OTT: Elo 49.5%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- OTT -111
- CAR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.7 – 2.8 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1580 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +6 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +3 Elo | CAR 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.3% | Shot share | 54.2%4th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 88.2%31st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 23–1811th of 32 |
| 17th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321580 | Elo rating | 15356th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–50 | 41–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 28–48 | 23–36 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 18–7 |
| Overs–unders | 45–39 | 43–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 8–3 OTT in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Apr 20OTT 2 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 57%Hit
- Apr 18OTT 0 @ CAR 2PlayoffsPicked CAR 57%Hit
- Apr 5CAR 3 @ OTT 6Picked CAR 52%Miss
- Feb 3OTT 3 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 62%Hit
- Jan 24CAR 4 @ OTT 1Picked CAR 55%Hit
- Apr 17CAR 5 @ OTT 7Picked OTT 59%Hit
- Dec 13OTT 3 @ CAR 0Picked CAR 64%Miss
- Nov 16OTT 0 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 61%Hit