Ottawa Senators at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators
Hurricanes- Taylor HallGoals1
- Jackson BlakeAssists2
- Taylor HallPoints2
Scoring summary
- P37:15Taylor Hall Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Logan Stankoven (1), Jackson Blake (2)0–2
- P22:11Logan Stankoven Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (1), Taylor Hall (1)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:11Logan Stankoven Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (1), Taylor Hall (1)OTT 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 56% → 73% +17CAR 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P37:15Taylor Hall Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Logan Stankoven (1), Jackson Blake (2)OTT 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 81% → 95% +14CAR 81% → 95%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 57%
- ML OTT +124 / CAR -148
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 58.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -134
- OTT +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.5 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −6 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +58 Elo | CAR 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.94th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.2% | Shot share | 57.3%1st of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3221–20 | Road vs home | 29–121st of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 32 |
| 6th of 321540 | Elo rating | 15752nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–42 | 33–49 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–36 | 27–47 |
| Underdog | 17–6 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 43–39 | 45–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 3–6 CAR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.