Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Mark JankowskiGoals1
- Logan StankovenAssists1
- Mark JankowskiPoints1
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals1
- Mathew BarzalAssists1
- Bo HorvatPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:38Mark Jankowski Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Nystrom (9), Alexander Nikishin (22)2–1
- P213:14Bo Horvat Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (53), Victor Eklund (1)1–1
- P13:05Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Felix Unger Sorum (1), Logan Stankoven (23)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:05Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Felix Unger Sorum (1), Logan Stankoven (23)CAR 1 – 0 NYI · CAR 38% → 53% +15CAR 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P213:14Bo Horvat Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (53), Victor Eklund (1)CAR 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 37% → 58% +21NYI 37% → 58%+21 pts
- P314:38Mark Jankowski Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Nystrom (9), Alexander Nikishin (22)CAR 2 – 1 NYI · CAR 46% → 87% +41CAR 46% → 87%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 62%
- ML CAR +154 / NYI -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.7 pts
- NYI: Elo 44.5%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- NYI -165
- CAR +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.9 – 3.6 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −4 | CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +38 Elo | CAR 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 7th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.07th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.5% | Shot share | 50.3%15th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 90.2%10th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 5th of 3223–17 | Road vs home | 22–1812th of 32 |
| 17th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321573 | Elo rating | 147823rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–49 | 42–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–47 | 6–26 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 36–13 |
| Overs–unders | 45–36 | 39–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 10–5 NYI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.
- Apr 4NYI 3 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 69%Hit
- Oct 30NYI 2 @ CAR 6Picked CAR 66%Hit
- Mar 30NYI 4 @ CAR 6Picked CAR 75%Hit
- Jan 25CAR 2 @ NYI 3Picked CAR 66%Miss
- Dec 17NYI 0 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 67%Hit
- Dec 7CAR 3 @ NYI 4Picked CAR 64%Miss
- Apr 30NYI 3 @ CAR 6PlayoffsPicked CAR 57%Hit
- Apr 27CAR 2 @ NYI 3PlayoffsPicked NYI 52%Hit