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Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+

Away

Maple Leafs

32-36-14

1–3

at

Home

Senators

44-27-11

TOR 36%OTT 64%

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Canadian Tire Centre · ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.

OTT favored TOR favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTT50%TOR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Maple Leafs
Senators

Scoring summary

  • P319:54Dylan Cozens Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (23), Claude Giroux (35)1–3
  • P38:11William Nylander Goal (30) Backhand, assists: Jacob Quillan (2), Easton Cowan (18)1–2
  • P218:32Warren Foegele Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Lassi Thomson (3), Fabian Zetterlund (16)0–2
  • P16:04Drake Batherson Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (34), Jordan Spence (24)0–1

Turning points

The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P16:04Drake Batherson Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (34), Jordan Spence (24)TOR 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 63% → 76% +13
  2. P218:32Warren Foegele Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Lassi Thomson (3), Fabian Zetterlund (16)TOR 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 79% → 92% +13
  3. P38:11William Nylander Goal (30) Backhand, assists: Jacob Quillan (2), Easton Cowan (18)TOR 1 – 2 OTT · TOR 4% → 16% +13
  4. P319:54Dylan Cozens Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (23), Claude Giroux (35)TOR 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 100% → 100% +0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Senators 64%

SolidHit
TOR 36%OTT 64%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

Market
OTT 64%
ML TOR +164 / OTT -198
Pre-line forecast
OTT 66%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
OTT 65%
Ratings vs. market
+1.6 pts
OTT: Elo 65.2%, market 63.7%
Fair odds
OTT -175
TOR +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TOR 2.9 – 3.6 OTT
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTOROTTWhy
Team rating14641537Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−7−6TOR: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · OTT: James Reimer: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsOTT +109 EloOTT 65.2%
Market-implied ratingsOTT 65.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastOTT 65.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastOTT 63.7%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators compared, with each team's league rank
TORStatOTT
16th of 323.1Goals scored3.49th of 32
31st of 323.7Goals allowed3.012th of 32
29th of 32−0.5Margin+0.47th of 32
32nd of 3244.9%Shot share54.1%4th of 32
15th of 3289.6%Save percentage88.1%32nd of 32
25th of 323–7Last 105–516th of 32
31st of 3214–26Road vs home22–1812th of 32
1st of 321505Opponent Elo150213th of 32
26th of 321464Elo rating15376th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Maple LeafsSenators
145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTOROTT
Puck line34–4739–42
Last 105–56–4
Favorite7–2622–36
Underdog27–2117–6
Overs–unders47–3443–38
Overs–unders, last 107–35–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TOR 6–10 OTT in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.