Ottawa Senators at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Dylan CozensGoals1
- Jake SandersonAssists2
- Jake SandersonPoints2
Hurricanes- Jordan MartinookGoals1
- Jordan StaalAssists1
- Jordan MartinookPoints1
Scoring summary
- 2OT13:53Jordan Martinook Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (1), K'Andre Miller (1)2–3
- P216:40Dylan Cozens Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (1), Jake Sanderson (2)2–2
- P210:47Drake Batherson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (1)1–2
- P27:50Sebastian Aho Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Staal (1)0–2
- P16:31Logan Stankoven Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (2), Jackson Blake (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:31Logan Stankoven Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (2), Jackson Blake (3)OTT 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 57% → 71% +14CAR 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P27:50Sebastian Aho Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Staal (1)OTT 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 74% → 87% +13CAR 74% → 87%+13 pts
- P210:47Drake Batherson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (1)OTT 1 – 2 CAR · OTT 12% → 26% +14OTT 12% → 26%+14 pts
- P216:40Dylan Cozens Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (1), Jake Sanderson (2)OTT 2 – 2 CAR · OTT 24% → 45% +21OTT 24% → 45%+21 pts
- 2OT13:53Jordan Martinook Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (1), K'Andre Miller (1)OTT 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 52% → 100% +48CAR 52% → 100%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 57%
- ML OTT +124 / CAR -148
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- CAR: Elo 59.6%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -134
- OTT +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.5 – 3.0 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −3 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +68 Elo | CAR 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.94th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.2% | Shot share | 57.3%1st of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3221–20 | Road vs home | 29–121st of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 7th of 321536 | Elo rating | 15782nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–43 | 34–49 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–36 | 28–47 |
| Underdog | 17–7 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 43–40 | 45–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 3–7 CAR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.