Carolina Hurricanes at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals2
- Seth JarvisAssists2
- Sebastian AhoPoints2
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals1
- Carter YakemchukAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:45Sebastian Aho Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Seth Jarvis (2), Jalen Chatfield (1)4–2
- P318:11Dylan Cozens Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (1), Carter Yakemchuk (2)3–2
- P317:38Sebastian Aho Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (1), Sean Walker (1)3–1
- P39:10Logan Stankoven Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (3), Taylor Hall (5)2–1
- P217:08Drake Batherson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Tim Stützle (1), Carter Yakemchuk (1)1–1
- P215:15Taylor Hall Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (1), Eric Robinson (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:15Taylor Hall Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (1), Eric Robinson (2)CAR 1 – 0 OTT · CAR 54% → 75% +21CAR 54% → 75%+21 pts
- P217:08Drake Batherson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Tim Stützle (1), Carter Yakemchuk (1)CAR 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 25% → 46% +22OTT 25% → 46%+22 pts
- P39:10Logan Stankoven Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (3), Taylor Hall (5)CAR 2 – 1 OTT · CAR 53% → 82% +30CAR 53% → 82%+30 pts
- P317:38Sebastian Aho Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (1), Sean Walker (1)CAR 3 – 1 OTT · CAR 97% → >99% +3CAR 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P318:11Dylan Cozens Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (1), Carter Yakemchuk (2)CAR 3 – 2 OTT · OTT <1% → 2% +2OTT <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 56%
- ML CAR -142 / OTT +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 51.4%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -129
- OTT +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.9 – 2.6 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +6 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +10 Elo | CAR 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.3% | Shot share | 54.2%4th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 88.2%31st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 23–1811th of 32 |
| 17th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321583 | Elo rating | 15327th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–50 | 41–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 28–48 | 23–37 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 18–7 |
| Overs–unders | 45–40 | 43–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 9–3 OTT in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.
- Apr 23CAR 2 @ OTT 1PlayoffsPicked OTT 53%Miss
- Apr 20OTT 2 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 57%Hit
- Apr 18OTT 0 @ CAR 2PlayoffsPicked CAR 57%Hit
- Apr 5CAR 3 @ OTT 6Picked CAR 52%Miss
- Feb 3OTT 3 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 62%Hit
- Jan 24CAR 4 @ OTT 1Picked CAR 55%Hit
- Apr 17CAR 5 @ OTT 7Picked OTT 59%Hit
- Dec 13OTT 3 @ CAR 0Picked CAR 64%Miss