Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast

Final/OTPHI wins series 4-2

Away

Penguins

41-25-16

0–1

at

Home

Flyers

43-27-12

PIT 48%PHI 52%

You didn't pick this one.

Xfinity Mobile Arena · TNT, truTV, HBO Max, NBC Sports Phil

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors PHI.

PHI75%50%75%PITStartP1P2P3Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Penguins
    Flyers

    Scoring summary

    • OT17:32Cam York Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (1), Noah Cates (3)0–1

    Turning points

    The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. OT17:32Cam York Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (1), Noah Cates (3)PIT 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 51% → 100% +49

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Flyers 52%

    Toss-upHit
    PIT 48%PHI 52%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

    Market
    PHI 52%
    ML PIT -102 / PHI -118
    Pre-line forecast
    PHI 56%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    PHI 56%
    Ratings vs. market
    +4.6 pts
    PHI: Elo 56.3%, market 51.7%
    Fair odds
    PHI -107
    PIT +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    PIT 2.7 – 2.8 PHI
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorPITPHIWhy
    Team rating15041506Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies0+7PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsPHI +44 EloPHI 56.3%
    Market-implied ratingsPHI 55.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastPHI 55.9%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastPHI 51.7%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers compared, with each team's league rank
    PITStatPHI
    3rd of 323.6Goals scored3.020th of 32
    24th of 323.3Goals allowed3.09th of 32
    10th of 32+0.3Margin+0.115th of 32
    11th of 3251.1%Shot share50.0%16th of 32
    24th of 3289.1%Save percentage89.1%23rd of 32
    16th of 325–5Last 107–32nd of 32
    9th of 3221–19Road vs home20–2121st of 32
    10th of 321503Opponent Elo15039th of 32
    16th of 321504Elo rating150615th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    PenguinsFlyers
    1400145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonPITPHI
    Puck line48–3956–31
    Last 103–77–3
    Favorite13–2311–15
    Underdog35–1645–16
    Overs–unders50–3744–43
    Overs–unders, last 106–45–5

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    PIT 8–9 PHI in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.