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Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast

FinalPHI leads series 3-2

Away

Flyers

43-27-12

2–3

at

Home

Penguins

41-25-16

PHI 47%PIT 53%

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PPG Paints Arena · ESPN, NBC Sports Phil, SportsNet PIT

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.

PIT favored PHI favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3PIT50%PHI

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Penguins

Scoring summary

  • P217:12Kris Letang Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (4), Ryan Shea (1)2–3
  • P215:06Travis Sanheim Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (4), Travis Konecny (3)2–2
  • P23:29Alex Bump Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (3), Noah Cates (2)1–2
  • P23:17Connor Dewar Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (3), Blake Lizotte (2)0–2
  • P12:45Elmer Soderblom Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (1), Parker Wotherspoon (1)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P12:45Elmer Soderblom Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (1), Parker Wotherspoon (1)PHI 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 53% → 67% +14
  2. P23:17Connor Dewar Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (3), Blake Lizotte (2)PHI 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 70% → 84% +14
  3. P23:29Alex Bump Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (3), Noah Cates (2)PHI 1 – 2 PIT · PHI 16% → 30% +14
  4. P215:06Travis Sanheim Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (4), Travis Konecny (3)PHI 2 – 2 PIT · PHI 27% → 48% +21
  5. P217:12Kris Letang Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (4), Ryan Shea (1)PHI 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 52% → 74% +22

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Penguins 53%

Toss-upHit
PHI 47%PIT 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
PIT 53%
ML PHI +105 / PIT -125
Pre-line forecast
PIT 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PIT 53%
Ratings vs. market
−0.5 pts
PIT: Elo 52.7%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
PIT -114
PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
PHI 2.7 – 2.8 PIT
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHIPITWhy
Team rating15081501Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+7−2PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsPIT +19 EloPIT 52.7%
Market-implied ratingsPIT 55.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPIT 55.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastPIT 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins compared, with each team's league rank
PHIStatPIT
20th of 323.0Goals scored3.63rd of 32
9th of 323.0Goals allowed3.324th of 32
15th of 32+0.1Margin+0.310th of 32
16th of 3250.0%Shot share51.1%11th of 32
23rd of 3289.1%Save percentage89.1%24th of 32
2nd of 327–3Last 105–516th of 32
7th of 3223–18Road vs home19–2125th of 32
10th of 321503Opponent Elo15039th of 32
14th of 321508Elo rating150118th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

FlyersPenguins
1400145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHIPIT
Puck line55–3148–38
Last 106–44–6
Favorite11–1513–22
Underdog44–1635–16
Overs–unders44–4250–36
Overs–unders, last 105–57–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHI 9–7 PIT in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.