Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast

FinalSeries tied 3-3

Away

Sabres

50-23-9

8–3

at

Home

Canadiens

48-24-10

BUF 39%MTL 61%

You didn't pick this one.

Bell Centre · ABC

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.

MTL favored BUF favored11 scoring plays
P1P2P3MTL50%BUF

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Sabres
Canadiens

Scoring summary

  • P317:49Zach Metsa Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (3), Rasmus Dahlin (10)8–3
  • P314:12Tage Thompson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none7–3
  • P39:58Jack Quinn Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (10), Rasmus Dahlin (9)6–3
  • P212:59Konsta Helenius Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (2), Rasmus Dahlin (8)5–3
  • P210:54Jack Quinn Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (7), Tage Thompson (9)4–3
  • P21:00Zach Benson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Tage Thompson (8), Bowen Byram (3)3–3
  • P113:56Jason Zucker Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (2), Jack Quinn (5)2–3
  • P110:14Jake Evans Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (2)1–3
  • P18:12Ivan Demidov Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (11), Cole Caufield (5)1–2
  • P11:40Arber Xhekaj Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (6)1–1
  • P10:32Rasmus Dahlin Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (3), Zach Benson (4)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P10:32Rasmus Dahlin Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (3), Zach Benson (4)BUF 1 – 0 MTL · BUF 39% → 54% +14
  2. P11:40Arber Xhekaj Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (6)BUF 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 46% → 61% +15
  3. P21:00Zach Benson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Tage Thompson (8), Bowen Byram (3)BUF 3 – 3 MTL · BUF 25% → 41% +16
  4. P210:54Jack Quinn Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (7), Tage Thompson (9)BUF 4 – 3 MTL · BUF 42% → 63% +21
  5. P212:59Konsta Helenius Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (2), Rasmus Dahlin (8)BUF 5 – 3 MTL · BUF 64% → 82% +18

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Canadiens 61%

LeanMiss
BUF 39%MTL 61%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

Market
MTL 61%
ML BUF +145 / MTL -175
Pre-line forecast
MTL 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MTL 55%
Ratings vs. market
−6.0 pts
MTL: Elo 54.9%, market 60.9%
Fair odds
MTL -156
BUF +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BUF 2.9 – 3.6 MTL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBUFMTLWhy
Team rating15521547Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies0+4BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMTL +35 EloMTL 54.9%
Market-implied ratingsMTL 56.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMTL 55.9%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMTL 60.9%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens compared, with each team's league rank
BUFStatMTL
5th of 323.5Goals scored3.56th of 32
7th of 322.9Goals allowed3.118th of 32
5th of 32+0.6Margin+0.39th of 32
19th of 3249.2%Shot share48.6%22nd of 32
3rd of 3290.7%Save percentage89.5%18th of 32
8th of 326–4Last 107–32nd of 32
2nd of 3224–17Road vs home24–178th of 32
12th of 321502Opponent Elo150211th of 32
4th of 321552Elo rating15476th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

SabresCanadiens
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBUFMTL
Puck line53–4054–40
Last 105–58–2
Favorite21–2811–35
Underdog32–1243–5
Overs–unders46–4751–43
Overs–unders, last 105–54–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BUF 6–11 MTL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 17.