Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jackson BlakeGoals2
- Taylor HallAssists3
- Jackson BlakePoints3
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals1
- Trevor ZegrasAssists1
- Tyson FoersterPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT5:31Jackson Blake Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (9), Jaccob Slavin (1)3–2
- P35:52Alex Bump Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (4), Christian Dvorak (4)2–2
- P34:13Logan Stankoven Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (8), Jackson Blake (7)2–1
- P212:35Jackson Blake Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (6), Taylor Hall (7)1–1
- P17:50Tyson Foerster Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (4), Porter Martone (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:50Tyson Foerster Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (4), Porter Martone (3)CAR 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 37% → 53% +15PHI 37% → 53%+15 pts
- P212:35Jackson Blake Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (6), Taylor Hall (7)CAR 1 – 1 PHI · CAR 38% → 59% +21CAR 38% → 59%+21 pts
- P34:13Logan Stankoven Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (8), Jackson Blake (7)CAR 2 – 1 PHI · CAR 57% → 81% +24CAR 57% → 81%+24 pts
- P35:52Alex Bump Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (4), Christian Dvorak (4)CAR 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 18% → 43% +25PHI 18% → 43%+25 pts
- OT5:31Jackson Blake Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (9), Jaccob Slavin (1)CAR 3 – 2 PHI · CAR 54% → 100% +46CAR 54% → 100%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 64%
- ML CAR -198 / PHI +164
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 58.6%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -175
- PHI +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.1 – 2.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1595 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +4 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +60 Elo | CAR 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 59.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.3% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.1%23rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 20–2121st of 32 |
| 20th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321595 | Elo rating | 150018th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–51 | 57–34 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–49 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 46–18 |
| Overs–unders | 46–43 | 44–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 12–2 PHI in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.
- May 7CAR 4 @ PHI 1PlayoffsPicked CAR 60%Hit
- May 4PHI 2 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 70%Hit
- May 2PHI 0 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 69%Hit
- Apr 13CAR 2 @ PHI 3Picked PHI 59%Hit
- Dec 14PHI 2 @ CAR 3Picked CAR 69%Hit
- Dec 13CAR 4 @ PHI 3Picked CAR 62%Hit
- Oct 11PHI 3 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 72%Hit
- Mar 15CAR 5 @ PHI 0Picked CAR 61%Hit