Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Taylor HallGoals1
- Mark JankowskiAssists1
- Taylor HallPoints1
Canadiens- Mike MathesonGoals1
- Jake EvansAssists1
- Mike MathesonPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT14:06Andrei Svechnikov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (4)3–2
- P24:43Lane Hutson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (7), Jakub Dobes (1)2–2
- P116:22Taylor Hall Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (7), Jackson Blake (8)2–1
- P115:28Mike Matheson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (6), Jake Evans (8)1–1
- P18:24Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (4), Eric Robinson (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:24Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (4), Eric Robinson (3)CAR 1 – 0 MTL · CAR 58% → 72% +14CAR 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P115:28Mike Matheson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (6), Jake Evans (8)CAR 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 27% → 43% +16MTL 27% → 43%+16 pts
- P116:22Taylor Hall Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (7), Jackson Blake (8)CAR 2 – 1 MTL · CAR 57% → 73% +16CAR 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P24:43Lane Hutson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (7), Jakub Dobes (1)CAR 2 – 2 MTL · MTL 26% → 44% +17MTL 26% → 44%+17 pts
- OT14:06Andrei Svechnikov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (4)CAR 3 – 2 MTL · CAR 52% → 100% +48CAR 52% → 100%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 58%
- ML CAR -155 / MTL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 51.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -140
- MTL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 2.5 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1592 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | 0 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +10 Elo | CAR 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.39th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.3% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%18th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 24–178th of 32 |
| 18th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 1st of 321592 | Elo rating | 15495th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–54 | 57–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 31–52 | 11–36 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 46–5 |
| Overs–unders | 47–45 | 53–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 5–6 MTL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.
- May 23MTL 2 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 64%Hit
- May 21MTL 6 @ CAR 2PlayoffsPicked CAR 66%Miss
- Mar 29MTL 3 @ CAR 1Picked CAR 61%Miss
- Mar 24CAR 2 @ MTL 5Picked CAR 53%Miss
- Jan 1MTL 7 @ CAR 5Picked CAR 60%Miss
- Apr 16CAR 2 @ MTL 4Picked MTL 58%Hit
- Mar 28MTL 1 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 75%Hit
- Feb 25CAR 0 @ MTL 4Picked CAR 67%Miss