Montreal Canadiens at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals2
- Phillip DanaultAssists2
- Josh AndersonPoints2
Hurricanes- Nikolaj EhlersGoals2
- Jalen ChatfieldAssists2
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:29Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (3), Jalen Chatfield (3)2–3
- P312:51Josh Anderson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (6), Phillip Danault (8)2–2
- P217:03Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (2), Jalen Chatfield (2)1–2
- P111:11Josh Anderson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (7), Kaiden Guhle (8)1–1
- P12:33Eric Robinson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: William Carrier (2), Mark Jankowski (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:33Eric Robinson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: William Carrier (2), Mark Jankowski (2)MTL 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 64% → 77% +13CAR 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P111:11Josh Anderson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (7), Kaiden Guhle (8)MTL 1 – 1 CAR · MTL 23% → 37% +14MTL 23% → 37%+14 pts
- P217:03Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (2), Jalen Chatfield (2)MTL 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 59% → 79% +20CAR 59% → 79%+20 pts
- P312:51Josh Anderson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (6), Phillip Danault (8)MTL 2 – 2 CAR · MTL 12% → 45% +33MTL 12% → 45%+33 pts
- OT3:29Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (3), Jalen Chatfield (3)MTL 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 52% → >99% +47CAR 52% → >99%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 64%
- ML MTL +170 / CAR -205
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- CAR: Elo 60.7%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CAR -181
- MTL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.8 – 3.7 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +1 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +75 Elo | CAR 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 62.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.94th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 57.3%1st of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 29–121st of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 32 |
| 5th of 321551 | Elo rating | 15902nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 56–41 | 38–53 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–36 | 31–51 |
| Underdog | 45–5 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 53–44 | 47–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 6–4 CAR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- May 21MTL 6 @ CAR 2PlayoffsPicked CAR 66%Miss
- Mar 29MTL 3 @ CAR 1Picked CAR 61%Miss
- Mar 24CAR 2 @ MTL 5Picked CAR 53%Miss
- Jan 1MTL 7 @ CAR 5Picked CAR 60%Miss
- Apr 16CAR 2 @ MTL 4Picked MTL 58%Hit
- Mar 28MTL 1 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 75%Hit
- Feb 25CAR 0 @ MTL 4Picked CAR 67%Miss
- Mar 30CAR 3 @ MTL 0Picked MTL 52%Miss