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Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast

FinalCAR leads series 3-1

Away

Hurricanes

53-22-7

4–0

at

Home

Canadiens

48-24-10

CAR 57%MTL 43%

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Bell Centre · TNT, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.

MTL favored CAR favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3MTL50%CAR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Hurricanes
Canadiens

    Scoring summary

    • P318:06Andrei Svechnikov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (4)4–0
    • P117:46Logan Stankoven Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (9), Shayne Gostisbehere (4)3–0
    • P116:07Jordan Staal Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: K'Andre Miller (8), Nikolaj Ehlers (4)2–0
    • P114:59Sebastian Aho Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (3), Shayne Gostisbehere (3)1–0

    Turning points

    The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P114:59Sebastian Aho Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (3), Shayne Gostisbehere (3)CAR 1 – 0 MTL · CAR 56% → 72% +16
    2. P116:07Jordan Staal Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: K'Andre Miller (8), Nikolaj Ehlers (4)CAR 2 – 0 MTL · CAR 72% → 84% +12
    3. P117:46Logan Stankoven Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (9), Shayne Gostisbehere (4)CAR 3 – 0 MTL · CAR 85% → 93% +8
    4. P318:06Andrei Svechnikov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (4)CAR 4 – 0 MTL · CAR >99% → >99% +0

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Hurricanes 57%

    LeanHit
    CAR 57%MTL 43%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

    Market
    CAR 57%
    ML CAR -148 / MTL +124
    Pre-line forecast
    CAR 56%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    CAR 52%
    Ratings vs. market
    −5.1 pts
    CAR: Elo 52.1%, market 57.2%
    Fair odds
    CAR -134
    MTL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    CAR 3.0 – 2.5 MTL
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorCARMTLWhy
    Team rating15941547Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+20CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsCAR +15 EloCAR 52.1%
    Market-implied ratingsCAR 56.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastCAR 55.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastCAR 57.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Carolina Hurricanes and Montreal Canadiens compared, with each team's league rank
    CARStatMTL
    2nd of 323.6Goals scored3.56th of 32
    4th of 322.9Goals allowed3.118th of 32
    3rd of 32+0.7Margin+0.39th of 32
    1st of 3257.3%Shot share48.6%22nd of 32
    26th of 3288.6%Save percentage89.5%18th of 32
    2nd of 327–3Last 107–32nd of 32
    2nd of 3224–17Road vs home24–178th of 32
    19th of 321499Opponent Elo150211th of 32
    1st of 321594Elo rating15476th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    HurricanesCanadiens
    14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonCARMTL
    Puck line38–5558–41
    Last 104–67–3
    Favorite31–5311–36
    Underdog7–247–5
    Overs–unders47–4653–46
    Overs–unders, last 102–86–4

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    CAR 6–6 MTL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.