Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals1
- Josh AndersonAssists1
- Josh AndersonPoints2
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals2
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists1
- William NylanderPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:46William Nylander Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (1), John Tavares (1)3–2
- P313:12Alexandre Carrier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P24:52Zachary Bolduc Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (1), Josh Anderson (1)2–1
- P110:53Josh Anderson Goal (1) Batted, assists: Alexandre Carrier (1), Kirby Dach (1)1–1
- P10:48William Nylander Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (1), Kirill Marchenko (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:48William Nylander Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (1), Kirill Marchenko (1)MTL 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 51% → 65% +14TOR 51% → 65%+14 pts
- P110:53Josh Anderson Goal (1) Batted, assists: Alexandre Carrier (1), Kirby Dach (1)MTL 1 – 1 TOR · MTL 33% → 49% +16MTL 33% → 49%+16 pts
- P24:52Zachary Bolduc Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (1), Josh Anderson (1)MTL 2 – 1 TOR · MTL 49% → 68% +18MTL 49% → 68%+18 pts
- P313:12Alexandre Carrier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 3 – 1 TOR · MTL 86% → 98% +13MTL 86% → 98%+13 pts
- P315:46William Nylander Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (1), John Tavares (1)MTL 3 – 2 TOR · TOR <1% → 9% +8TOR <1% → 9%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML MTL -105 / TOR -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 43%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 47.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- MTL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.2 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +3 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +16 Elo | MTL 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 44.8%32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.7%15th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 18–2328th of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15041st of 32 |
| 7th of 321528 | Elo rating | 147127th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  MTL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 58–43 | 34–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–36 | 7–26 |
| Underdog | 47–7 | 27–22 |
| Overs–unders | 54–47 | 47–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 4–7 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.